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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 72%

Michael Morales 13%

Leon Edwards 11.0%

Carlos Prates 8.0%

Polymarket

$36,498 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 72%

Michael Morales 13%

Leon Edwards 11.0%

Carlos Prates 8.0%

Polymarket

$36,498 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$5,271 Vol.

75%

Michael Morales

$1,007 Vol.

19%

Leon Edwards

$649 Vol.

11%

Carlos Prates

$671 Vol.

13%

Ian Machado Garry

$1,674 Vol.

14%

Kamaru Usman

$860 Vol.

5%

Belal Muhammad

$566 Vol.

4%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$2,649 Vol.

2%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,339 Vol.

12%

Sean Brady

$904 Vol.

7%

Joaquin Buckley

$20,907 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's dominant wrestling clinic to claim the UFC welterweight title from Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in late 2025 has solidified trader consensus at 75% implied probability for him to remain champion through 2026, bolstered by his P4P top ranking and recent confirmation of training camp for a first title defense potentially in July or August against frontrunners like Ian Machado Garry or Michael Morales. Rising contenders Carlos Prates (14.3%), fresh off knockout wins, and Morales (13.0%) draw support from statement victories over ex-champ Belal Muhammad and top-15 foes, while Garry (12.5%) and Leon Edwards (12.4%) benefit from unbeaten streaks and stylistic edges in a deep division previewed for compelling matchups ahead of Prates-Della Maddalena on May 2.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$36,498
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev's dominant wrestling clinic to claim the UFC welterweight title from Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in late 2025 has solidified trader consensus at 75% implied probability for him to remain champion through 2026, bolstered by his P4P top ranking and recent confirmation of training camp for a first title defense potentially in July or August against frontrunners like Ian Machado Garry or Michael Morales. Rising contenders Carlos Prates (14.3%), fresh off knockout wins, and Morales (13.0%) draw support from statement victories over ex-champ Belal Muhammad and top-15 foes, while Garry (12.5%) and Leon Edwards (12.4%) benefit from unbeaten streaks and stylistic edges in a deep division previewed for compelling matchups ahead of Prates-Della Maddalena on May 2.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$36,498
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 75%, followed by "Michael Morales" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $36.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Morales" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.