Tom Aspinall remains the undisputed heavyweight champion but has been sidelined since a no-contest eye-poke stoppage against Ciryl Gane in late 2025, delaying his first defense and prompting an interim title bout between Gane and Alex Pereira at UFC Freedom 250. Recent form from contenders including Tyrell Fortune’s win over Marcin Tybura and Rizvan Kuniev’s victory over Jailton Almeida has elevated their profiles, while veterans like Sergei Pavlovich and Serghei Spivac stay in contention through steady activity. With Aspinall’s recovery timeline uncertain and the division featuring multiple ranked fighters on hot streaks or short turnarounds, trader consensus shows a tight cluster of implied probabilities reflecting the open path to the belt through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTom Aspinall 43%
Ante Delija 29.1%
Ciryl Gane 27%
Serghei Spivac 10.0%
$324,187 Vol.
$324,187 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
43%
Ante Delija
29%
Ciryl Gane
27%
Serghei Spivac
10%
Derrick Lewis
7%
Jailton Almeida
5%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
5%
Alexander Volkov
2%
Marcin Tybura
1%
Sergei Pavlovich
6%
Rizvan Kuniev
1%
Josh Hokit
10%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Tyrell Fortune
46%
Tom Aspinall 43%
Ante Delija 29.1%
Ciryl Gane 27%
Serghei Spivac 10.0%
$324,187 Vol.
$324,187 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
43%
Ante Delija
29%
Ciryl Gane
27%
Serghei Spivac
10%
Derrick Lewis
7%
Jailton Almeida
5%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
5%
Alexander Volkov
2%
Marcin Tybura
1%
Sergei Pavlovich
6%
Rizvan Kuniev
1%
Josh Hokit
10%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Tyrell Fortune
46%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Aspinall remains the undisputed heavyweight champion but has been sidelined since a no-contest eye-poke stoppage against Ciryl Gane in late 2025, delaying his first defense and prompting an interim title bout between Gane and Alex Pereira at UFC Freedom 250. Recent form from contenders including Tyrell Fortune’s win over Marcin Tybura and Rizvan Kuniev’s victory over Jailton Almeida has elevated their profiles, while veterans like Sergei Pavlovich and Serghei Spivac stay in contention through steady activity. With Aspinall’s recovery timeline uncertain and the division featuring multiple ranked fighters on hot streaks or short turnarounds, trader consensus shows a tight cluster of implied probabilities reflecting the open path to the belt through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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