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Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·Mma

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Tom Aspinall 54%

Jailton Almeida 39.5%

Derrick Lewis 37.3%

Ante Delija 36.9%

Polymarket

$96,554 Vol.

Tom Aspinall 54%

Jailton Almeida 39.5%

Derrick Lewis 37.3%

Ante Delija 36.9%

Polymarket

$96,554 Vol.

Tom Aspinall

$1,284 Vol.

49%

Jailton Almeida

$0 Vol.

40%

Derrick Lewis

$3,063 Vol.

37%

Ante Delija

$0 Vol.

37%

Sergei Pavlovich

$0 Vol.

35%

Ciryl Gane

$2,948 Vol.

27%

Curtis Blaydes

$66,071 Vol.

25%

Marcin Tybura

$23,187 Vol.

2%

Serghei Spivac

$0 Vol.

45%

Alexander Volkov

$0 Vol.

37%

Waldo Cortes Acosta

$0 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Tom Aspinall holds the UFC heavyweight title but remains sidelined by a serious eye injury from his recent no-contest against Ciryl Gane, creating uncertainty around his 2026 return and defenses amid a paper-thin division. Trader consensus reflects this volatility, with Serghei Spivac's grappling edge and recent striking improvements over Ante Delija positioning him close behind, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta's knockout streak—including four 2025 wins—fuels his surge. A cluster of knockout threats like Sergei Pavlovich (back-to-back decisions in 2025), Alexander Volkov, Derrick Lewis, and Ante Delija boast recent momentum, compounded by the June 14 interim title clash between Gane and Alex Pereira, keeping probabilities tightly bunched in a wide-open race to year-end supremacy.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$96,554
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Tom Aspinall holds the UFC heavyweight title but remains sidelined by a serious eye injury from his recent no-contest against Ciryl Gane, creating uncertainty around his 2026 return and defenses amid a paper-thin division. Trader consensus reflects this volatility, with Serghei Spivac's grappling edge and recent striking improvements over Ante Delija positioning him close behind, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta's knockout streak—including four 2025 wins—fuels his surge. A cluster of knockout threats like Sergei Pavlovich (back-to-back decisions in 2025), Alexander Volkov, Derrick Lewis, and Ante Delija boast recent momentum, compounded by the June 14 interim title clash between Gane and Alex Pereira, keeping probabilities tightly bunched in a wide-open race to year-end supremacy.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$96,554
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Aspinall" at 49%, followed by "Serghei Spivac" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $96.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Tom Aspinall" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Serghei Spivac" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.