Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn by roughly 27 percentage points in the May 26 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, with final tallies showing Paxton at approximately 63.5-63.8% and Cornyn at 36.2-36.5%. This outcome aligns with the dominant market pricing in the 25-30% victory margin bracket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds after Paxton's late Trump endorsement boosted mobilization among his base while Cornyn experienced sharp declines in urban and suburban turnout from the March primary. The wide margin exceeded most pre-runoff polling expectations. Resolution depends on final certified statewide results; material shifts remain possible only through unusually large official adjustments or recount processes, though the scale of the reported lead makes such changes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTexas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
Paxton 25–30% 95.9%
Paxton 30%+ 2.0%
Paxton 20–25% <1%
Paxton 15–20% <1%
$135,867 Vol.
$135,867 Vol.
26 may 2026
Paxton 30%+
2%
Paxton 25–30%
96%
Paxton 20–25%
<1%
Paxton 15–20%
<1%
Paxton 10–15%
<1%
Paxton 5–10%
<1%
Paxton 0–5%
<1%
Cornyn Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Paxton 25–30% 95.9%
Paxton 30%+ 2.0%
Paxton 20–25% <1%
Paxton 15–20% <1%
$135,867 Vol.
$135,867 Vol.
26 may 2026
Paxton 30%+
$41,604 Vol.
2%
Paxton 25–30%
$20,499 Vol.
96%
Paxton 20–25%
$11,500 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 15–20%
$16,939 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 10–15%
$17,944 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 5–10%
$9,695 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 0–5%
$13,664 Vol.
<1%
Cornyn Win
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,572 Vol.
<1%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn by roughly 27 percentage points in the May 26 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, with final tallies showing Paxton at approximately 63.5-63.8% and Cornyn at 36.2-36.5%. This outcome aligns with the dominant market pricing in the 25-30% victory margin bracket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds after Paxton's late Trump endorsement boosted mobilization among his base while Cornyn experienced sharp declines in urban and suburban turnout from the March primary. The wide margin exceeded most pre-runoff polling expectations. Resolution depends on final certified statewide results; material shifts remain possible only through unusually large official adjustments or recount processes, though the scale of the reported lead makes such changes improbable.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$135,867Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn by roughly 27 percentage points in the May 26 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, with final tallies showing Paxton at approximately 63.5-63.8% and Cornyn at 36.2-36.5%. This outcome aligns with the dominant market pricing in the 25-30% victory margin bracket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds after Paxton's late Trump endorsement boosted mobilization among his base while Cornyn experienced sharp declines in urban and suburban turnout from the March primary. The wide margin exceeded most pre-runoff polling expectations. Resolution depends on final certified statewide results; material shifts remain possible only through unusually large official adjustments or recount processes, though the scale of the reported lead makes such changes improbable.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$135,867Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn by roughly 27 percentage points in the May 26 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, with final tallies showing Paxton at approximately 63.5-63.8% and Cornyn at 36.2-36.5%. This outcome aligns with the dominant market pricing in the 25-30% victory margin bracket, reflecting the wisdom of crowds after Paxton's late Trump endorsement boosted mobilization among his base while Cornyn experienced sharp declines in urban and suburban turnout from the March primary. The wide margin exceeded most pre-runoff polling expectations. Resolution depends on final certified statewide results; material shifts remain possible only through unusually large official adjustments or recount processes, though the scale of the reported lead makes such changes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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