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Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

icon for Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Apr 30

May 31

Apr 30

May 31

160-170mm 97.8%

190mm+ 2.8%

<130mm 1.0%

130-140mm <1%

Polymarket

$140,053 Vol.

160-170mm 97.8%

190mm+ 2.8%

<130mm 1.0%

130-140mm <1%

Polymarket

$140,053 Vol.

<130mm

$41,082 Vol.

1%

130-140mm

$18,869 Vol.

1%

140-150mm

$20,002 Vol.

<1%

150-160mm

$28,411 Vol.

1%

160-170mm

$12,289 Vol.

98%

190-200mm

$4,206 Vol.

<1%

180-190

$5,107 Vol.

<1%

190mm+

$10,088 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory rain gauge data accumulated 160.4mm of total precipitation through April 30, 2026, precisely aligning with the 160-170mm outcome commanding 98.2% trader consensus on Polymarket. Daily rainfall records, updated in real-time via the Observatory's official measurements, showed steady accumulation without significant late-month surges, such as the amber rainstorm on April 29 that added modest amounts but stayed within expectations. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects near-certainty based on verified station data, typical for April's climatological norms around 150mm. Only an improbable data revision or overlooked gauge adjustment in the final monthly summary could shift resolution, though historical precedents indicate high reliability of preliminary totals.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$140,053
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory rain gauge data accumulated 160.4mm of total precipitation through April 30, 2026, precisely aligning with the 160-170mm outcome commanding 98.2% trader consensus on Polymarket. Daily rainfall records, updated in real-time via the Observatory's official measurements, showed steady accumulation without significant late-month surges, such as the amber rainstorm on April 29 that added modest amounts but stayed within expectations. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects near-certainty based on verified station data, typical for April's climatological norms around 150mm. Only an improbable data revision or overlooked gauge adjustment in the final monthly summary could shift resolution, though historical precedents indicate high reliability of preliminary totals.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$140,053
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "160-170mm" at 98%, followed by "<130mm" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?" has generated $140.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?" is "160-170mm" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<130mm" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.