Microsoft shares closed at $407.78 on April 30, 2026, down sharply post-Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings despite beating estimates with $82.9 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $4.27 versus $81.4 billion and $4.06 expected, propelled by record cloud growth and AI demand. The decline stems from investor caution over management's $190 billion capital spending guidance for fiscal 2026, tied to surging memory chip costs for data center expansion. Analyst consensus price targets average $559, signaling long-term optimism amid competitive positioning in cloud and AI. With no company-specific events before May 4 resolution, trader sentiment on Polymarket will track broader Nasdaq momentum, upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, and tech sector volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
May 4, 2026
$390
96%
$400
85%
$410
55%
$420
23%
$430
7%
$2 Vol.
$390
$0 Vol.
96%
$400
$2 Vol.
85%
$410
$0 Vol.
55%
$420
$0 Vol.
23%
$430
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares closed at $407.78 on April 30, 2026, down sharply post-Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings despite beating estimates with $82.9 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $4.27 versus $81.4 billion and $4.06 expected, propelled by record cloud growth and AI demand. The decline stems from investor caution over management's $190 billion capital spending guidance for fiscal 2026, tied to surging memory chip costs for data center expansion. Analyst consensus price targets average $559, signaling long-term optimism amid competitive positioning in cloud and AI. With no company-specific events before May 4 resolution, trader sentiment on Polymarket will track broader Nasdaq momentum, upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, and tech sector volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Volume
$2End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft shares closed at $407.78 on April 30, 2026, down sharply post-Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings despite beating estimates with $82.9 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $4.27 versus $81.4 billion and $4.06 expected, propelled by record cloud growth and AI demand. The decline stems from investor caution over management's $190 billion capital spending guidance for fiscal 2026, tied to surging memory chip costs for data center expansion. Analyst consensus price targets average $559, signaling long-term optimism amid competitive positioning in cloud and AI. With no company-specific events before May 4 resolution, trader sentiment on Polymarket will track broader Nasdaq momentum, upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, and tech sector volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$2End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft shares closed at $407.78 on April 30, 2026, down sharply post-Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings despite beating estimates with $82.9 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $4.27 versus $81.4 billion and $4.06 expected, propelled by record cloud growth and AI demand. The decline stems from investor caution over management's $190 billion capital spending guidance for fiscal 2026, tied to surging memory chip costs for data center expansion. Analyst consensus price targets average $559, signaling long-term optimism amid competitive positioning in cloud and AI. With no company-specific events before May 4 resolution, trader sentiment on Polymarket will track broader Nasdaq momentum, upcoming nonfarm payrolls data, and tech sector volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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