The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA confirming an advisory status and Niño-3.4 indices near +0.7–0.8°C as of early June 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperature anomalies. This ocean-atmosphere coupling, building on record warmth in 2024 and sustained high baseline rates of ~0.27°C per decade in human-induced warming, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Recent WMO and model ensembles highlight the event's intensification through 2026–27, though June-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact timing of atmospheric response and any short-term variability in sea-surface temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 25%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,832 Vol.
$10,832 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
25%
1.15–1.19ºC
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 25%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,832 Vol.
$10,832 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,053 Vol.
25%
1.15–1.19ºC
$84 Vol.
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,867 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,420 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,092 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA confirming an advisory status and Niño-3.4 indices near +0.7–0.8°C as of early June 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperature anomalies. This ocean-atmosphere coupling, building on record warmth in 2024 and sustained high baseline rates of ~0.27°C per decade in human-induced warming, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Recent WMO and model ensembles highlight the event's intensification through 2026–27, though June-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact timing of atmospheric response and any short-term variability in sea-surface temperatures.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$10,832End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA confirming an advisory status and Niño-3.4 indices near +0.7–0.8°C as of early June 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperature anomalies. This ocean-atmosphere coupling, building on record warmth in 2024 and sustained high baseline rates of ~0.27°C per decade in human-induced warming, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Recent WMO and model ensembles highlight the event's intensification through 2026–27, though June-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact timing of atmospheric response and any short-term variability in sea-surface temperatures.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$10,832End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA confirming an advisory status and Niño-3.4 indices near +0.7–0.8°C as of early June 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperature anomalies. This ocean-atmosphere coupling, building on record warmth in 2024 and sustained high baseline rates of ~0.27°C per decade in human-induced warming, supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin. Recent WMO and model ensembles highlight the event's intensification through 2026–27, though June-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact timing of atmospheric response and any short-term variability in sea-surface temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions