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Politics·Idaho Primary

Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner

icon for Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Idaho Primary

Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner

David Roth 81%

Brad Moore 13.7%

Nickolas Bonds 4.3%

Polymarket

$18,818 Vol.

David Roth 81%

Brad Moore 13.7%

Nickolas Bonds 4.3%

Polymarket

$18,818 Vol.

David Roth

$14,483 Vol.

81%

Brad Moore

$2,333 Vol.

14%

Nickolas Bonds

$2,001 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.David Roth leads Idaho's Democratic U.S. Senate primary market at 75% implied probability as the 2022 Democratic nominee, giving him superior name recognition and established campaign infrastructure among the state's limited Democratic primary voters ahead of the May 19 contest. His prior statewide run, active website, and FEC filings since 2023 signal stronger organization compared to challengers Brad Moore (13.5%), a Boise resident with a recent campaign launch, and Nickolas Bonds (4.2%), an estate executive with minimal prior visibility. No public polling exists for this low-turnout race, but trader consensus reflects Roth's incumbency-like edge in deep-red Idaho, solidified after the April 8 filing deadline confirmed these as the primary field with no major disruptions since.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$18,818
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 8:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.David Roth leads Idaho's Democratic U.S. Senate primary market at 75% implied probability as the 2022 Democratic nominee, giving him superior name recognition and established campaign infrastructure among the state's limited Democratic primary voters ahead of the May 19 contest. His prior statewide run, active website, and FEC filings since 2023 signal stronger organization compared to challengers Brad Moore (13.5%), a Boise resident with a recent campaign launch, and Nickolas Bonds (4.2%), an estate executive with minimal prior visibility. No public polling exists for this low-turnout race, but trader consensus reflects Roth's incumbency-like edge in deep-red Idaho, solidified after the April 8 filing deadline confirmed these as the primary field with no major disruptions since.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$18,818
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 8:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "David Roth" at 81%, followed by "Brad Moore" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $18.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "David Roth" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brad Moore" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Idaho Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.