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icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

NEW
Apr 23, 2027
Polymarket

$857 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$20 Vol.

75%

Jordan Bardella

$116 Vol.

64%

Michel Barnier

$48 Vol.

43%

Valérie Pécresse

$5 Vol.

28%

Gabriel Attal

$148 Vol.

85%

Élisabeth Borne

$41 Vol.

67%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$0 Vol.

50%

Jean Castex

$21 Vol.

29%

Gérald Darmanin

$61 Vol.

74%

Sébastien Lecornu

$0 Vol.

26%

François Bayrou

$18 Vol.

27%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$41 Vol.

59%

Carole Delga

$50 Vol.

53%

Olivier Faure

$25 Vol.

59%

François Hollande

$44 Vol.

60%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$19 Vol.

43%

Manuel Bompard

$0 Vol.

28%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$95 Vol.

81%

Mathilde Panot

$32 Vol.

26%

Dominique de Villepin

$11 Vol.

62%

Marine Le Pen

$63 Vol.

39%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.One year ahead of the 2027 French presidential election's first round, President Emmanuel Macron's term limit has spurred a crowded field, with party primaries and internal consultations accelerating candidacy announcements throughout 2026. Key recent developments include Les Républicains designating Bruno Retailleau as their nominee on April 20 after a member vote, former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve declaring on April 28 to consolidate a center-left barrier against extremes, and David Lisnard launching his independent right-wing bid on April 1. The Rassemblement National awaits Marine Le Pen's ineligibility appeal ruling on July 7, potentially paving Jordan Bardella's path, while the left-wing unitary primary is set for October 11. Traders eye these deadlines and frontrunners like Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe—already declared—for further 2026 declarations amid polling volatility and coalition pressures.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$857
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.One year ahead of the 2027 French presidential election's first round, President Emmanuel Macron's term limit has spurred a crowded field, with party primaries and internal consultations accelerating candidacy announcements throughout 2026. Key recent developments include Les Républicains designating Bruno Retailleau as their nominee on April 20 after a member vote, former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve declaring on April 28 to consolidate a center-left barrier against extremes, and David Lisnard launching his independent right-wing bid on April 1. The Rassemblement National awaits Marine Le Pen's ineligibility appeal ruling on July 7, potentially paving Jordan Bardella's path, while the left-wing unitary primary is set for October 11. Traders eye these deadlines and frontrunners like Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe—already declared—for further 2026 declarations amid polling volatility and coalition pressures.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$857
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gabriel Attal" at 85%, followed by "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 81%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is "Gabriel Attal" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 81%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.