Recent CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data show the cumulative U.S. influenza-associated hospitalization rate reaching 87.2 per 100,000 by Week 20 (ending May 23, 2026), with weekly rates falling to just 0.1 per 100,000 amid the typical post-peak decline. This positions the Week 21 cumulative figure firmly in the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns where activity drops sharply by late May and minimal new cases accrue before final reporting. Traders assign 98.1% implied probability to this outcome, reflecting consensus on CDC methodology and the absence of late-season surges. Only substantial upward data revisions or an atypical resurgence could shift the result outside this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 21, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 21, 2026?
85–90 98.0%
90–95 <1%
95–100 <1%
<80 <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
<80
<1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
98%
90–95
1%
95–100
1%
100+
<1%
85–90 98.0%
90–95 <1%
95–100 <1%
<80 <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
<80
$569 Vol.
<1%
80–85
$281 Vol.
<1%
85–90
$923 Vol.
98%
90–95
$1,300 Vol.
1%
95–100
$848 Vol.
1%
100+
$891 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Recent CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data show the cumulative U.S. influenza-associated hospitalization rate reaching 87.2 per 100,000 by Week 20 (ending May 23, 2026), with weekly rates falling to just 0.1 per 100,000 amid the typical post-peak decline. This positions the Week 21 cumulative figure firmly in the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns where activity drops sharply by late May and minimal new cases accrue before final reporting. Traders assign 98.1% implied probability to this outcome, reflecting consensus on CDC methodology and the absence of late-season surges. Only substantial upward data revisions or an atypical resurgence could shift the result outside this narrow range.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Volume
$4,812End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Recent CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data show the cumulative U.S. influenza-associated hospitalization rate reaching 87.2 per 100,000 by Week 20 (ending May 23, 2026), with weekly rates falling to just 0.1 per 100,000 amid the typical post-peak decline. This positions the Week 21 cumulative figure firmly in the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns where activity drops sharply by late May and minimal new cases accrue before final reporting. Traders assign 98.1% implied probability to this outcome, reflecting consensus on CDC methodology and the absence of late-season surges. Only substantial upward data revisions or an atypical resurgence could shift the result outside this narrow range.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$4,812End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance data show the cumulative U.S. influenza-associated hospitalization rate reaching 87.2 per 100,000 by Week 20 (ending May 23, 2026), with weekly rates falling to just 0.1 per 100,000 amid the typical post-peak decline. This positions the Week 21 cumulative figure firmly in the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns where activity drops sharply by late May and minimal new cases accrue before final reporting. Traders assign 98.1% implied probability to this outcome, reflecting consensus on CDC methodology and the absence of late-season surges. Only substantial upward data revisions or an atypical resurgence could shift the result outside this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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