Trader consensus prices "No" approval of AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) sNDA at 82.5%, driven by FDA briefing documents released April 29 ahead of today's Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) meeting, which question the clinical meaningfulness of the phase III CAPItello-281 trial results. The trial showed a modest 19% reduction in radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) risk (HR 0.81) when adding capivasertib to abiraterone in PTEN-deficient metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), but highlighted increased serious toxicities, immature overall survival data (HR 0.85), and combination with an already effective backbone therapy. Prior discontinuation of the CAPItello-280 trial in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer last year adds caution. The ODAC vote this afternoon and final FDA decision today represent key catalysts that could sway probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,070 Vol.
$2,070 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$2,070 Vol.
$2,070 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) as a treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (PTEN-deficient) by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" approval of AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) sNDA at 82.5%, driven by FDA briefing documents released April 29 ahead of today's Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) meeting, which question the clinical meaningfulness of the phase III CAPItello-281 trial results. The trial showed a modest 19% reduction in radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) risk (HR 0.81) when adding capivasertib to abiraterone in PTEN-deficient metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), but highlighted increased serious toxicities, immature overall survival data (HR 0.85), and combination with an already effective backbone therapy. Prior discontinuation of the CAPItello-280 trial in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer last year adds caution. The ODAC vote this afternoon and final FDA decision today represent key catalysts that could sway probabilities.
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) as a treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (PTEN-deficient) by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) as a treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (PTEN-deficient) by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$2,070End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) as a treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (PTEN-deficient) by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" approval of AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) sNDA at 82.5%, driven by FDA briefing documents released April 29 ahead of today's Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) meeting, which question the clinical meaningfulness of the phase III CAPItello-281 trial results. The trial showed a modest 19% reduction in radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) risk (HR 0.81) when adding capivasertib to abiraterone in PTEN-deficient metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), but highlighted increased serious toxicities, immature overall survival data (HR 0.85), and combination with an already effective backbone therapy. Prior discontinuation of the CAPItello-280 trial in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer last year adds caution. The ODAC vote this afternoon and final FDA decision today represent key catalysts that could sway probabilities.
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) as a treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (PTEN-deficient) by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) as a treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (PTEN-deficient) by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,070End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" approval of AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib) sNDA at 82.5%, driven by FDA briefing documents released April 29 ahead of today's Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) meeting, which question the clinical meaningfulness of the phase III CAPItello-281 trial results. The trial showed a modest 19% reduction in radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) risk (HR 0.81) when adding capivasertib to abiraterone in PTEN-deficient metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), but highlighted increased serious toxicities, immature overall survival data (HR 0.85), and combination with an already effective backbone therapy. Prior discontinuation of the CAPItello-280 trial in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer last year adds caution. The ODAC vote this afternoon and final FDA decision today represent key catalysts that could sway probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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