Trader consensus has priced in an 81.9% implied probability for FDA approval of Axsome Therapeutics' AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion, branded Auvelity) for agitation in Alzheimer's disease, driven primarily by the imminent Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date of April 30, 2026—just yesterday. The FDA granted priority review to the supplemental new drug application in late December 2025, shortening the timeline amid breakthrough therapy designation since 2020, highlighting the therapy's potential to address a critical unmet need as the first oral non-antipsychotic option. Phase 3 ADVANCE-1 trial data, recently reviewed ahead of PDUFA, showed AXS-05 significantly delayed agitation relapse (hazard ratio 0.276 vs. placebo), outweighing a prior failed acute study. With no advisory committee required and Axsome's stock up nearly 15% in the past month on positive sentiment, traders anticipate regulatory greenlight, though last-minute scrutiny on elderly safety data remains a minor risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,560 Vol.
$2,560 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$2,560 Vol.
$2,560 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Axsome Therapeutics's AXS-05 as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease agitation by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus has priced in an 81.9% implied probability for FDA approval of Axsome Therapeutics' AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion, branded Auvelity) for agitation in Alzheimer's disease, driven primarily by the imminent Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date of April 30, 2026—just yesterday. The FDA granted priority review to the supplemental new drug application in late December 2025, shortening the timeline amid breakthrough therapy designation since 2020, highlighting the therapy's potential to address a critical unmet need as the first oral non-antipsychotic option. Phase 3 ADVANCE-1 trial data, recently reviewed ahead of PDUFA, showed AXS-05 significantly delayed agitation relapse (hazard ratio 0.276 vs. placebo), outweighing a prior failed acute study. With no advisory committee required and Axsome's stock up nearly 15% in the past month on positive sentiment, traders anticipate regulatory greenlight, though last-minute scrutiny on elderly safety data remains a minor risk.
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Axsome Therapeutics's AXS-05 as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease agitation by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Axsome Therapeutics's AXS-05 as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease agitation by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,560End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Axsome Therapeutics's AXS-05 as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease agitation by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus has priced in an 81.9% implied probability for FDA approval of Axsome Therapeutics' AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion, branded Auvelity) for agitation in Alzheimer's disease, driven primarily by the imminent Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date of April 30, 2026—just yesterday. The FDA granted priority review to the supplemental new drug application in late December 2025, shortening the timeline amid breakthrough therapy designation since 2020, highlighting the therapy's potential to address a critical unmet need as the first oral non-antipsychotic option. Phase 3 ADVANCE-1 trial data, recently reviewed ahead of PDUFA, showed AXS-05 significantly delayed agitation relapse (hazard ratio 0.276 vs. placebo), outweighing a prior failed acute study. With no advisory committee required and Axsome's stock up nearly 15% in the past month on positive sentiment, traders anticipate regulatory greenlight, though last-minute scrutiny on elderly safety data remains a minor risk.
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is April 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Axsome Therapeutics's AXS-05 as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease agitation by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Axsome Therapeutics's AXS-05 as a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease agitation by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,560End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus has priced in an 81.9% implied probability for FDA approval of Axsome Therapeutics' AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion, branded Auvelity) for agitation in Alzheimer's disease, driven primarily by the imminent Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date of April 30, 2026—just yesterday. The FDA granted priority review to the supplemental new drug application in late December 2025, shortening the timeline amid breakthrough therapy designation since 2020, highlighting the therapy's potential to address a critical unmet need as the first oral non-antipsychotic option. Phase 3 ADVANCE-1 trial data, recently reviewed ahead of PDUFA, showed AXS-05 significantly delayed agitation relapse (hazard ratio 0.276 vs. placebo), outweighing a prior failed acute study. With no advisory committee required and Axsome's stock up nearly 15% in the past month on positive sentiment, traders anticipate regulatory greenlight, though last-minute scrutiny on elderly safety data remains a minor risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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