Trader consensus prices "No" at 75.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's (PCC) sustained de facto control despite a deepening energy and economic crisis triggered by the U.S. oil blockade since January, following Venezuela's loss of oil subsidies. March protests over blackouts and shortages in cities like Havana and Santiago were met with arrests and subsequent releases of over 2,000 prisoners by early April as concessions amid U.S.-Cuba diplomatic talks confirmed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel. His April interviews rejected U.S. demands for resignation, emphasizing dialogue without political change and readiness to resist aggression, underscoring regime resilience akin to past crises like the 1990s Special Period, with no military defections or mass uprisings evident.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$184,411 Vol.
$184,411 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$184,411 Vol.
$184,411 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 75.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's (PCC) sustained de facto control despite a deepening energy and economic crisis triggered by the U.S. oil blockade since January, following Venezuela's loss of oil subsidies. March protests over blackouts and shortages in cities like Havana and Santiago were met with arrests and subsequent releases of over 2,000 prisoners by early April as concessions amid U.S.-Cuba diplomatic talks confirmed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel. His April interviews rejected U.S. demands for resignation, emphasizing dialogue without political change and readiness to resist aggression, underscoring regime resilience akin to past crises like the 1990s Special Period, with no military defections or mass uprisings evident.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$184,411End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 75.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's (PCC) sustained de facto control despite a deepening energy and economic crisis triggered by the U.S. oil blockade since January, following Venezuela's loss of oil subsidies. March protests over blackouts and shortages in cities like Havana and Santiago were met with arrests and subsequent releases of over 2,000 prisoners by early April as concessions amid U.S.-Cuba diplomatic talks confirmed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel. His April interviews rejected U.S. demands for resignation, emphasizing dialogue without political change and readiness to resist aggression, underscoring regime resilience akin to past crises like the 1990s Special Period, with no military defections or mass uprisings evident.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$184,411End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 75.5% for the Cuban regime falling in 2026, reflecting the Communist Party of Cuba's (PCC) sustained de facto control despite a deepening energy and economic crisis triggered by the U.S. oil blockade since January, following Venezuela's loss of oil subsidies. March protests over blackouts and shortages in cities like Havana and Santiago were met with arrests and subsequent releases of over 2,000 prisoners by early April as concessions amid U.S.-Cuba diplomatic talks confirmed by President Miguel Díaz-Canel. His April interviews rejected U.S. demands for resignation, emphasizing dialogue without political change and readiness to resist aggression, underscoring regime resilience akin to past crises like the 1990s Special Period, with no military defections or mass uprisings evident.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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