With qualification campaigns wrapped up after UEFA playoffs concluded in late March—where Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Türkiye, and Czechia secured the final European spots—trader consensus prices France at 16% implied probability and Spain at 15.3% in a tightly contested 2026 FIFA World Cup futures market, reflecting no clear dominant force among Europe's powerhouses and South America's giants like Argentina and Brazil, both topping CONMEBOL standings. The expanded 48-team format, featuring 16 compact group stages and an extended knockout path to the final, amplifies upset potential despite favorable draws for leaders; recent Lamine Yamal injury concerns for Spain narrowed the gap with Mbappé-led France, while England's depth, Messi's Argentina swansong, and Brazil's rebuild keep the race fluid amid balanced FIFA rankings and club-season form.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$953,251,132 Vol.
$953,251,132 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$953,251,132 Vol.
$953,251,132 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With qualification campaigns wrapped up after UEFA playoffs concluded in late March—where Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Türkiye, and Czechia secured the final European spots—trader consensus prices France at 16% implied probability and Spain at 15.3% in a tightly contested 2026 FIFA World Cup futures market, reflecting no clear dominant force among Europe's powerhouses and South America's giants like Argentina and Brazil, both topping CONMEBOL standings. The expanded 48-team format, featuring 16 compact group stages and an extended knockout path to the final, amplifies upset potential despite favorable draws for leaders; recent Lamine Yamal injury concerns for Spain narrowed the gap with Mbappé-led France, while England's depth, Messi's Argentina swansong, and Brazil's rebuild keep the race fluid amid balanced FIFA rankings and club-season form.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions