FIFA regulations grant the governing body sole discretion to replace a withdrawing team, yet recent statements from President Gianni Infantino and league officials emphasize no plan B for Iran’s potential absence at the 2026 tournament co-hosted by the United States. Political tensions, including U.S. travel restrictions and broader regional conflicts, prompted Iranian withdrawal signals in March 2026, but FIFA has repeatedly affirmed that qualification spots earned on the pitch remain intact and rejected external proposals such as Italy stepping in. Trader consensus reflects this stance, pricing no replacement as the overwhelming outcome. A shift could occur only if Iran formally withdraws and FIFA opts for an AFC alternate like the UAE or Iraq to maintain confederation balance, though historical precedent and current positioning make such intervention unlikely.