Paloma Valencia, the Democratic Centre candidate backed by former President Álvaro Uribe, finished third in Colombia’s May 31, 2026 first-round presidential vote with roughly 6.9 percent, well below earlier polling averages of 14-25 percent. Traders assign near-certainty to a sub-10 percent outcome because right-leaning voters consolidated behind outsider Abelardo de la Espriella in the final weeks, drawn by his hardline security messaging and momentum from large rallies and social media. This shift left Valencia’s traditional base fragmented and eroded her primary strength. A certified result near 7 percent aligns with the market pricing; any material change would require an official recount or reversal of validated tallies, both considered remote given the National Registry’s preliminary count and international observer assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPaloma Valencia vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
Paloma Valencia vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
<10% 98.8%
10-15% <1%
30-35% <1%
25-30% <1%
$14,814 Vol.
$14,814 Vol.
31 may 2026
<10%
99%
10-15%
1%
15-20%
<1%
20-25%
<1%
25-30%
1%
30-35%
1%
35%+
<1%
<10% 98.8%
10-15% <1%
30-35% <1%
25-30% <1%
$14,814 Vol.
$14,814 Vol.
31 may 2026
<10%
$7,806 Vol.
99%
10-15%
$1,598 Vol.
1%
15-20%
$733 Vol.
<1%
20-25%
$1,062 Vol.
<1%
25-30%
$2,512 Vol.
1%
30-35%
$688 Vol.
1%
35%+
$415 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Paloma Valencia, the Democratic Centre candidate backed by former President Álvaro Uribe, finished third in Colombia’s May 31, 2026 first-round presidential vote with roughly 6.9 percent, well below earlier polling averages of 14-25 percent. Traders assign near-certainty to a sub-10 percent outcome because right-leaning voters consolidated behind outsider Abelardo de la Espriella in the final weeks, drawn by his hardline security messaging and momentum from large rallies and social media. This shift left Valencia’s traditional base fragmented and eroded her primary strength. A certified result near 7 percent aligns with the market pricing; any material change would require an official recount or reversal of validated tallies, both considered remote given the National Registry’s preliminary count and international observer assessments.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 27, 2026, 12:06 PM ET
Volumen
$14,814Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Paloma Valencia, the Democratic Centre candidate backed by former President Álvaro Uribe, finished third in Colombia’s May 31, 2026 first-round presidential vote with roughly 6.9 percent, well below earlier polling averages of 14-25 percent. Traders assign near-certainty to a sub-10 percent outcome because right-leaning voters consolidated behind outsider Abelardo de la Espriella in the final weeks, drawn by his hardline security messaging and momentum from large rallies and social media. This shift left Valencia’s traditional base fragmented and eroded her primary strength. A certified result near 7 percent aligns with the market pricing; any material change would require an official recount or reversal of validated tallies, both considered remote given the National Registry’s preliminary count and international observer assessments.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Paloma Valencia, not any coalition of which she may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$14,814Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Paloma Valencia, the Democratic Centre candidate backed by former President Álvaro Uribe, finished third in Colombia’s May 31, 2026 first-round presidential vote with roughly 6.9 percent, well below earlier polling averages of 14-25 percent. Traders assign near-certainty to a sub-10 percent outcome because right-leaning voters consolidated behind outsider Abelardo de la Espriella in the final weeks, drawn by his hardline security messaging and momentum from large rallies and social media. This shift left Valencia’s traditional base fragmented and eroded her primary strength. A certified result near 7 percent aligns with the market pricing; any material change would require an official recount or reversal of validated tallies, both considered remote given the National Registry’s preliminary count and international observer assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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