Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in the opening phase of the 2026 Iran conflict with the United States and Israel. He has remained in the country since, issuing public statements on regional policy, the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliation while meeting senior officials including the president; his location is kept secret amid security concerns and unconfirmed reports of prior injury. As the clerical establishment's choice to consolidate power during active hostilities, no verified departures, exile plans, or extended absences have occurred. Trader consensus reflects these structural realities, with the low implied probability of departure by late June 2026 tied to his central role in wartime decision-making and regime continuity. Any shift would likely require major diplomatic or military developments altering his position.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,975,566 Vol.
30 de junio
1%
$1,975,566 Vol.
30 de junio
1%
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in the opening phase of the 2026 Iran conflict with the United States and Israel. He has remained in the country since, issuing public statements on regional policy, the Strait of Hormuz, and retaliation while meeting senior officials including the president; his location is kept secret amid security concerns and unconfirmed reports of prior injury. As the clerical establishment's choice to consolidate power during active hostilities, no verified departures, exile plans, or extended absences have occurred. Trader consensus reflects these structural realities, with the low implied probability of departure by late June 2026 tied to his central role in wartime decision-making and regime continuity. Any shift would likely require major diplomatic or military developments altering his position.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes