Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight consensus for Seoul's May 15 minimum temperature near 15–16°C at the resolving Incheon International Airport station, driving trader-implied probabilities of 30.5% for 15°C and 25.0% for 16°C amid spring warming under high-pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover on May 14—persistent stratus trapping heat to favor 16°C, versus clearing for radiational cooling toward 14–15°C—plus light Yellow Sea winds delivering milder maritime air against drier continental flows. Urban heat island effects add 1–2°C above rural baselines, aligning with mid-May historical averages of 14–15°C. Final KMA updates today could refine this 2°C model spread as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Seúl el 15 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Seúl el 15 de mayo?
15°C 31%
16°C 28%
14°C 14%
13°C 5.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
11°C o menos
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
6%
14°C
14%
15°C
31%
16°C
28%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C o más
<1%
15°C 31%
16°C 28%
14°C 14%
13°C 5.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
11°C o menos
$849 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$777 Vol.
1%
13°C
$503 Vol.
6%
14°C
$293 Vol.
14%
15°C
$160 Vol.
31%
16°C
$89 Vol.
28%
17°C
$130 Vol.
2%
18°C
$644 Vol.
1%
19°C
$447 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$458 Vol.
<1%
21°C o más
$3,008 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight consensus for Seoul's May 15 minimum temperature near 15–16°C at the resolving Incheon International Airport station, driving trader-implied probabilities of 30.5% for 15°C and 25.0% for 16°C amid spring warming under high-pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover on May 14—persistent stratus trapping heat to favor 16°C, versus clearing for radiational cooling toward 14–15°C—plus light Yellow Sea winds delivering milder maritime air against drier continental flows. Urban heat island effects add 1–2°C above rural baselines, aligning with mid-May historical averages of 14–15°C. Final KMA updates today could refine this 2°C model spread as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$7,358Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight consensus for Seoul's May 15 minimum temperature near 15–16°C at the resolving Incheon International Airport station, driving trader-implied probabilities of 30.5% for 15°C and 25.0% for 16°C amid spring warming under high-pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover on May 14—persistent stratus trapping heat to favor 16°C, versus clearing for radiational cooling toward 14–15°C—plus light Yellow Sea winds delivering milder maritime air against drier continental flows. Urban heat island effects add 1–2°C above rural baselines, aligning with mid-May historical averages of 14–15°C. Final KMA updates today could refine this 2°C model spread as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,358Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and global model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show tight consensus for Seoul's May 15 minimum temperature near 15–16°C at the resolving Incheon International Airport station, driving trader-implied probabilities of 30.5% for 15°C and 25.0% for 16°C amid spring warming under high-pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include overnight cloud cover on May 14—persistent stratus trapping heat to favor 16°C, versus clearing for radiational cooling toward 14–15°C—plus light Yellow Sea winds delivering milder maritime air against drier continental flows. Urban heat island effects add 1–2°C above rural baselines, aligning with mid-May historical averages of 14–15°C. Final KMA updates today could refine this 2°C model spread as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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