Polymarket traders assign a 42% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease in July, edging out no change at 36.5% and a hike at 7%, capturing uncertainty in the easing cycle following the central bank's 50 basis point cut to 14.5% on April 24—its eighth consecutive reduction amid March inflation steady at 5.9% year-over-year. Cautious guidance highlighted lingering pro-inflationary risks from economic overheating and elevated oil price forecasts, offsetting disinflation progress toward the 4.5-5.5% 2026 target. Key differentiators include May CPI releases and the June meeting, with subdued GDP growth projections around 0.5-1.1% potentially favoring further easing against wage pressures.