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World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination

icon for World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination
Sports·Soccer

World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination

Round of 32 46%

Group Stage 19%

Round of 16 18%

Quarterfinals 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Round of 32 46%

Group Stage 19%

Round of 16 18%

Quarterfinals 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Round of 32

$111 Vol.

46%

Group Stage

$634 Vol.

19%

Round of 16

$151 Vol.

18%

Quarterfinals

$735 Vol.

13%

Semifinals

$2,418 Vol.

8%

Champion

$28 Vol.

4%

Final

$233 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Japan enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in strong form, fresh off victories over Brazil and England plus prior upsets against Germany and Spain, fueling trader confidence in their ability to navigate a competitive Group F featuring the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia. The squad's European-based depth, tactical flexibility under Hajime Moriyasu, and aggressive pressing create realistic paths past the group stage, yet the expanded 48-team format and challenging opening fixtures keep early elimination probabilities elevated. Recent injuries to key attackers like Kaoru Mitoma add uncertainty around sustained knockout runs, producing the tight clustering between Round of 32 and further advancement as the wisdom of crowds weighs proven results against historical last-16 barriers.

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,311
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fifa.com/en/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Japan enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in strong form, fresh off victories over Brazil and England plus prior upsets against Germany and Spain, fueling trader confidence in their ability to navigate a competitive Group F featuring the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia. The squad's European-based depth, tactical flexibility under Hajime Moriyasu, and aggressive pressing create realistic paths past the group stage, yet the expanded 48-team format and challenging opening fixtures keep early elimination probabilities elevated. Recent injuries to key attackers like Kaoru Mitoma add uncertainty around sustained knockout runs, producing the tight clustering between Round of 32 and further advancement as the wisdom of crowds weighs proven results against historical last-16 barriers.

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'.
If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,311
End Date
Jul 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.fifa.com/en/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Round of 32" at 46%, followed by "Group Stage" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination" is "Round of 32" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Group Stage" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.