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Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)

icon for World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)

Senegal (15) 11%

Türkiye (22) 10.0%

Croatia (11) 9%

Netherlands (8) 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Senegal (15) 11%

Türkiye (22) 10.0%

Croatia (11) 9%

Netherlands (8) 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Argentina (1)

$130 Vol.

<1%

Spain (2)

$150 Vol.

1%

France (3)

$150 Vol.

1%

England (4)

$80 Vol.

1%

Portugal (5)

$130 Vol.

1%

Brazil (6)

$130 Vol.

1%

Morocco (7)

$525 Vol.

4%

Netherlands (8)

$678 Vol.

8%

Belgium (9)

$160 Vol.

3%

Germany (10)

$130 Vol.

1%

Croatia (11)

$600 Vol.

9%

Colombia (13)

$745 Vol.

1%

Mexico (14)

$130 Vol.

1%

Senegal (15)

$1,133 Vol.

11%

Uruguay (16)

$130 Vol.

2%

USA (17)

$80 Vol.

<1%

Japan (18)

$622 Vol.

5%

Switzerland (19)

$140 Vol.

1%

IR Iran (20)

$635 Vol.

8%

Türkiye (22)

$260 Vol.

10%

Ecuador (23)

$160 Vol.

1%

Austria (24)

$140 Vol.

1%

Korea Republic (25)

$80 Vol.

1%

Australia (27)

$200 Vol.

1%

Algeria (28)

$130 Vol.

1%

Egypt (29)

$130 Vol.

1%

Canada (30)

$310 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used. “Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance). If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage features an expanded 48-team format across 12 groups, where only the top two advance automatically and the eight best third-place sides advance on tiebreakers. Trader consensus clusters around mid-tier sides such as Senegal, Türkiye, Croatia, and the Netherlands because they occupy groups with other strong contenders and have shown inconsistent recent form or qualification results. Lower-ranked nations hold elevated implied probabilities in this market precisely because multiple competitive pools create realistic scenarios for a team ranked 11th–25th to finish outside the top two. Elite sides like Argentina, France, and Spain carry minimal odds of early elimination given favorable draws and superior squad depth. Ongoing early matches and injury updates continue to shape these probabilities without decisive shifts yet.

This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used.

“Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance).

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,887
End Date
Jun 29, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used. “Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance). If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used. “Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance). If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage features an expanded 48-team format across 12 groups, where only the top two advance automatically and the eight best third-place sides advance on tiebreakers. Trader consensus clusters around mid-tier sides such as Senegal, Türkiye, Croatia, and the Netherlands because they occupy groups with other strong contenders and have shown inconsistent recent form or qualification results. Lower-ranked nations hold elevated implied probabilities in this market precisely because multiple competitive pools create realistic scenarios for a team ranked 11th–25th to finish outside the top two. Elite sides like Argentina, France, and Spain carry minimal odds of early elimination given favorable draws and superior squad depth. Ongoing early matches and injury updates continue to shape these probabilities without decisive shifts yet.

This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used.

“Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance).

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,887
End Date
Jun 29, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used. “Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance). If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Senegal (15)" at 11%, followed by "Türkiye (22)" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)" is "Senegal (15)" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Türkiye (22)" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Highest-Ranking Nation Eliminated (Group Phase)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.