Trader consensus prices an 81% implied probability against Max Verstappen retiring from F1 at the end of 2026, reflecting skepticism over his late-March statements amid Red Bull's dismal start to the new regulations era—currently ninth in driver standings with just 12 points after six Grands Prix, no podiums, and Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli leading at 72. Verstappen voiced frustration, calling the active aero power units "Mario Kart-like" and questioning if it's "worth it," but his contract runs through 2028 with an August-October release clause window rather than a retirement trigger. Team principal Laurent Mekies affirmed two days ago that recent staff departures won't sway his future, underscoring adaptation potential or a team switch over outright exit in a sport where the four-time champion has historically dominated despite rumors.