Aaron Rodgers' recent one-year, $22.5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers and his explicit May 2026 statements confirming the upcoming campaign as his final NFL season underpin the 98% implied probability against retirement before the 2026 campaign. At age 42-43, the four-time MVP has shown no signs of stepping away early, with organized team activities and roster commitments reflecting ongoing preparation and team alignment under familiar coaching. The wisdom of crowds in the market reflects this clarity from official announcements and contract guarantees, though injury setbacks ahead of training camp or an unforeseen personal decision remain narrow theoretical paths that could theoretically shift resolution timing before the regular season begins.