Petr Yan’s recovery from back surgery, which sidelined the UFC bantamweight champion until summer 2026, has shaped the market around a planned trilogy bout with Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili’s 62.5% implied probability reflects confirmed statements from both fighters and UFC matchmaking prioritizing the rivalry after Yan’s December 2025 decision win at UFC 323, positioning Dvalishvili for an immediate title shot upon full recovery. Sean O’Malley sits at 22.2% as the next most plausible option given his former championship pedigree and stylistic appeal in the division, while lower-priced names such as Song Yadong, Dominick Cruz, and Umar Nurmagomedov represent deeper bench contenders whose probabilities hinge on Yan’s timeline and any interim developments in the 135-pound standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMerab Dvalishvili 70%
Sean O’Malley 16.4%
Song Yadong 1.8%
Dominick Cruz <1%
$1,118,827 Vol.
$1,118,827 Vol.
Merab Dvalishvili
62%
Sean O’Malley
22%
Song Yadong
2%
Dominick Cruz
1%
Umar Nurmagomedov
1%
Alexander Volkanovski
1%
Ricky Simón
<1%
Alexandre Pantoja
<1%
Deiveson Figueiredo
<1%
Payton Talbott
<1%
Cory Sandhagen
<1%
Rob Font
<1%
Pedro Munhoz
<1%
Henry Cejudo
<1%
Merab Dvalishvili 70%
Sean O’Malley 16.4%
Song Yadong 1.8%
Dominick Cruz <1%
$1,118,827 Vol.
$1,118,827 Vol.
Merab Dvalishvili
62%
Sean O’Malley
22%
Song Yadong
2%
Dominick Cruz
1%
Umar Nurmagomedov
1%
Alexander Volkanovski
1%
Ricky Simón
<1%
Alexandre Pantoja
<1%
Deiveson Figueiredo
<1%
Payton Talbott
<1%
Cory Sandhagen
<1%
Rob Font
<1%
Pedro Munhoz
<1%
Henry Cejudo
<1%
Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Petr Yan is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place.
Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
If Yan is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Petr Yan is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place.
Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
If Yan is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Petr Yan’s recovery from back surgery, which sidelined the UFC bantamweight champion until summer 2026, has shaped the market around a planned trilogy bout with Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili’s 62.5% implied probability reflects confirmed statements from both fighters and UFC matchmaking prioritizing the rivalry after Yan’s December 2025 decision win at UFC 323, positioning Dvalishvili for an immediate title shot upon full recovery. Sean O’Malley sits at 22.2% as the next most plausible option given his former championship pedigree and stylistic appeal in the division, while lower-priced names such as Song Yadong, Dominick Cruz, and Umar Nurmagomedov represent deeper bench contenders whose probabilities hinge on Yan’s timeline and any interim developments in the 135-pound standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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