Joshua Van holds the UFC Flyweight title after dethroning Alexandre Pantoja via TKO late last year, but trader consensus prices his first defense against top contender Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328—postponed from UFC 327—as a coin-flip affair, with Taira favored on traditional books due to his undefeated streak, elite grappling, and stylistic edges. Kyoji Horiguchi leads implied probabilities following his recent submission of Amir Albazi, vaulting him into top-five rankings and positioning him for a post-fight title path, especially with a looming clash against Manel Kape. Pantoja's proven defenses and recovery keep him viable, underscoring the division's parity and multiple turnover risks through December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKyoji Horiguchi 40.8%
Tatsuro Taira 37%
Alexandre Pantoja 30%
Joshua Van 26%
$13,132 Vol.
$13,132 Vol.
Kyoji Horiguchi
41%
Tatsuro Taira
37%
Alexandre Pantoja
27%
Joshua Van
26%
Manel Kape
12%
Tim Elliott
1%
Amir Albazi
1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Kyoji Horiguchi 40.8%
Tatsuro Taira 37%
Alexandre Pantoja 30%
Joshua Van 26%
$13,132 Vol.
$13,132 Vol.
Kyoji Horiguchi
41%
Tatsuro Taira
37%
Alexandre Pantoja
27%
Joshua Van
26%
Manel Kape
12%
Tim Elliott
1%
Amir Albazi
1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Joshua Van holds the UFC Flyweight title after dethroning Alexandre Pantoja via TKO late last year, but trader consensus prices his first defense against top contender Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328—postponed from UFC 327—as a coin-flip affair, with Taira favored on traditional books due to his undefeated streak, elite grappling, and stylistic edges. Kyoji Horiguchi leads implied probabilities following his recent submission of Amir Albazi, vaulting him into top-five rankings and positioning him for a post-fight title path, especially with a looming clash against Manel Kape. Pantoja's proven defenses and recovery keep him viable, underscoring the division's parity and multiple turnover risks through December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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