This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, byJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Trader sentiment on the TikTok acquisition market hinges on the January 22, 2026, finalization of the TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, a majority U.S.-owned entity controlled by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX (15% stakes each), with ByteDance retaining a minority 19.9% share. This deal, enabled by President Trump's executive order extensions, complies with the 2024 divestiture law addressing national security concerns over Chinese data access and algorithmic influence, averting a U.S. ban after years of legal battles and bids from Amazon and others. The structure secures TikTok's 170 million U.S. users and advertiser revenue, though congressional oversight and potential integration challenges with Oracle's cloud infrastructure loom as key catalysts for any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Trader sentiment on the TikTok acquisition market hinges on the January 22, 2026, finalization of the TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, a majority U.S.-owned entity controlled by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX (15% stakes each), with ByteDance retaining a minority 19.9% share. This deal, enabled by President Trump's executive order extensions, complies with the 2024 divestiture law addressing national security concerns over Chinese data access and algorithmic influence, averting a U.S. ban after years of legal battles and bids from Amazon and others. The structure secures TikTok's 170 million U.S. users and advertiser revenue, though congressional oversight and potential integration challenges with Oracle's cloud infrastructure loom as key catalysts for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 27 2026
Market reacts to continued lack of progress on TikTok acquisition and skepticism about AppLovin’s social platform plans, leading to a sharp
AppLovin drops to 1%8%
Market reacts to continued lack of progress on TikTok acquisition and skepticism about AppLovin’s social platform plans, leading to a sharp
Apr 13 2026
Business Wire reports that Walmart’s recent acquisition of Vizio and its expanded retail‑media platform are being leveraged to integrate TikTok Shop, reinforcing expectations that
Walmart dips to 6%2%
Business Wire reports that Walmart’s recent acquisition of Vizio and its expanded retail‑media platform are being leveraged to integrate TikTok Shop, reinforcing expectations that Walmart will benefit from the TikTok deal
Apr 12 2026
Verified TikTok account @elonmusk posts first video promoting Musk’s companies, sparking speculation about Musk’s interest in TikTok;
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) jumps to 9%6%
Musk also criticizes TikTok’s AI and content
Mar 22 2026
Market volatility amid TikTok ownership uncertainty, no Meta deal confirmed
Meta jumps to 11%5%
Market volatility amid TikTok ownership uncertainty, no Meta deal confirmed
Mar 20 2026
Market
Microsoft surges to 31%25%
No confirmed news of Microsoft acquiring TikTok surfaced, indicating these were likely speculative moves or unsubstantiated rumors[No direct source].
Mar 16 2026
Global Trade Magazine publishes “Oracle & Walmart Secure 60 % Stake in TikTok US Operations,” confirming the deal and describing it as a “major step toward acquisition”
Walmart surges to 22%18%
Global Trade Magazine publishes “Oracle & Walmart Secure 60 % Stake in TikTok US Operations,” confirming the deal and describing it as a “major step toward acquisition”
Mar 1 2026
AppLovin’s announcement of social platform development and job listings supporting this pivot cause a brief
AppLovin jumps to 6%5%
AppLovin’s announcement of social platform development and job listings supporting this pivot cause a brief
Feb 20 2026
Investor concerns and short-seller reports intensify, questioning AppLovin’s ability to succeed in social media and e-commerce advertising, contributing to a market cap drop and
AppLovin dips to 2%3%
Investor concerns and short-seller reports intensify, questioning AppLovin’s ability to succeed in social media and e-commerce advertising, contributing to a market cap drop and
Feb 19 2026
Bloomberg reports AppLovin is preparing to build a social networking platform after its failed TikTok bid, highlighting the company’s shift to compete directly with Meta, TikTok,
AppLovin dips to 2%2%
Bloomberg reports AppLovin is preparing to build a social networking platform after its failed TikTok bid, highlighting the company’s shift to compete directly with Meta, TikTok, and Snap in mobile advertising
Feb 13 2026
Market briefly spikes on rumors or speculation about Meta’s possible involvement or renewed interest in TikTok acquisition
Meta jumps to 9%5%
Market briefly spikes on rumors or speculation about Meta’s possible involvement or renewed interest in TikTok acquisition
Feb 13 2026
Speculation about Meta’s renewed interest in TikTok acquisition causes
Meta jumps to 9%5%
Speculation about Meta’s renewed interest in TikTok acquisition causes
Jan 26 2026
ITIF analysis of the newly announced TikTok U.S.
Walmart surges to 20%17%
joint‑venture highlights Walmart’s “close to finalizing a 60 % stake” together with Oracle, prompting a sharp rise in market confidence
Jan 22 2026
TikTok finalizes deal to establish a US entity majority-owned by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, with ByteDance retaining minority stake; no Amazon involvement
Amazon dips to 4%1%
The finalization of the US TikTok deal without Amazon confirmed the market's low probability of Amazon acquiring TikTok.
Jan 17 2026
AppLovin’s CEO and executives publicly acknowledge failure to acquire TikTok and announce plans to develop their own social networking platform, signaling a strategic pivot away
AppLovin jumps to 7%5%
AppLovin’s CEO and executives publicly acknowledge failure to acquire TikTok and announce plans to develop their own social networking platform, signaling a strategic pivot away from acquisition
Jan 15 2026
Elon Musk publicly states he has no intention to buy TikTok, emphasizing preference for building new platforms rather than acquiring legacy ones
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) rises to 4%1%
Elon Musk publicly states he has no intention to buy TikTok, emphasizing preference for building new platforms rather than acquiring legacy ones
Dec 29 2025
AppLovin’s shares peak again at 16% on speculation of renewed interest or potential deal enhancements, but no official announcement materializes
AppLovin jumps to 16%13%
AppLovin’s shares peak again at 16% on speculation of renewed interest or potential deal enhancements, but no official announcement materializes
Dec 21 2025
Market reacts negatively as AppLovin’s chances to acquire TikTok diminish due to regulatory scrutiny and competing bids, causing a sharp
AppLovin drops to 3%9%
Market reacts negatively as AppLovin’s chances to acquire TikTok diminish due to regulatory scrutiny and competing bids, causing a sharp
Dec 18 2025
TikTok signs deal to sell U.S. operations to a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, excluding Microsoft from the final agreement
Microsoft rises to 3%2%
The official signing of the deal with Oracle-led investors confirmed Microsoft was not the acquirer, but some residual speculation kept the.
Dec 18 2025
TikTok signs deal ceding US control to American investors Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX
Meta dips to 3%2%
TikTok signs deal ceding US control to American investors Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX
Dec 18 2025
TikTok agrees to cede control of US business to American investor group including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, with ByteDance retaining minority stake
Meta dips to 3%2%
Official deal announcements confirmed Meta was not the buyer, pushing
Dec 18 2025
Bloomberg reveals TikTok’s internal memo confirming a binding agreement to create a U.S.
Walmart rises to 5%3%
joint‑venture “majority‑owned by American investors,” naming Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX – reports cite Walmart as a likely partner in the consortium
Dec 18 2025
TikTok and Silver Lake sign agreements to create a new US joint venture, with Oracle-led investor group taking control; Amazon not included
Amazon drops to 1%6%
The official signing of the deal with Oracle and Silver Lake, excluding Amazon, caused a steep
Dec 18 2025
Pattern Group announces acquisition of NextWave, expanding TikTok Shop capabilities and integrating with Amazon's marketplace
Amazon rises to 5%4%
This partnership news between TikTok commerce and Amazon's marketplace may have slightly supported Amazon's perceived involvement in TikTok's ecosystem.
Dec 16 2025
Deadline extended to January 23, 2026, for TikTok’s U.S. divestiture; deal talks continue with Oracle-led consortium favored over Microsoft
Microsoft drops to 1%5%
The extension and growing favor toward Oracle and other investors reduced market confidence in Microsoft’s acquisition chances, causing a sharp.
Dec 14 2025
AppLovin’s bid for TikTok assets gains temporary market optimism amid reports of competitive bidding, pushing
AppLovin surges to 44%40%
AppLovin’s bid for TikTok assets gains temporary market optimism amid reports of competitive bidding, pushing
Nov 18 2025
Meta gains an antitrust victory partly due to TikTok’s competitive presence, but no acquisition deal announced
Meta rises to 5%1%
Positive regulatory news for Meta briefly lifted optimism, though unrelated to a TikTok purchase.
Nov 18 2025
Meta wins antitrust victory unrelated to TikTok acquisition but boosts sentiment
Meta rises to 5%1%
Meta wins antitrust victory unrelated to TikTok acquisition but boosts sentiment
Oct 29 2025
Yahoo Finance notes a temporary U.S.
Walmart rises to 5%4%
outage of TikTok and subsequent restoration, reigniting speculation about the pending sale and briefly lifts Walmart’s odds
Sep 22 2025
TechCrunch reports the Trump administration is pushing a forced sale of TikTok’s U.S.
Walmart dips to 2%3%
business and lists Walmart among the “leading contenders” alongside Microsoft and Oracle
Sep 21 2025
Fox Corp. enters talks to join TikTok investor group, signaling increased competition among bidders including Amazon
Amazon rises to 7%4%
The news of Fox joining the investor group likely raised speculation about deal dynamics, briefly boosting Amazon's
Sep 17 2025
President Trump states a group of major companies want to buy TikTok, including Microsoft among bidders, signaling a competitive bidding process
Microsoft rises to 6%1%
The confirmation of Microsoft as a serious contender alongside others kept market hopes alive, slightly increasing the.
Sep 17 2025
AppLovin publicly confirms bid to acquire TikTok’s global operations outside China, proposing a merger with TikTok Global to target the $80 billion advertising market;
AppLovin dips to 5%1%
CEO Adam Foroughi states the bid is an enhancement over existing deals with Oracle and others
Sep 16 2025
President Trump announces a US-China agreement to keep TikTok operating in the US, mentioning Amazon among bidders for TikTok's US assets
Amazon drops to 2%9%
This announcement confirmed Amazon as a bidder but also introduced uncertainty about the deal's outcome, causing a sharp
Sep 16 2025
U.S. and China reach framework agreement to keep TikTok operating in the U.S. under new American-controlled ownership; President Trump announces deal and extension of divestiture deadline to December 16, 2025
Microsoft drops to 5%6%
This announcement confirmed progress in talks but did not specify Microsoft as the acquirer, causing initial uncertainty and a.
Sep 15 2025
U.S. announces a framework deal for TikTok ownership involving American investors;
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) drops to 5%6%
Elon Musk is reported among bidders but no deal confirmed
Sep 15 2025
US and China reportedly reach a framework deal for TikTok’s US operations involving a consortium including Oracle, not Meta, signaling Meta’s low likelihood to acquire TikTok
Meta drops to 3%7%
This news dampened Meta’s acquisition chances as Oracle-led consortium emerged as the favored buyer, causing a sharp
Jan 27 2025
Donald Trump publicly says Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok and expresses desire for a bidding war over the app
Microsoft dips to 4%2%
This public acknowledgment by Trump highlighted Microsoft’s involvement but also suggested uncertainty, leading to a modest.
Jan 14 2025
Reports emerge that Chinese officials are considering selling TikTok’s U.S.
operations to Elon Musk to avoid a U.S. ban; TikTok calls these reports "pure fiction"
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, byJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Trader sentiment on the TikTok acquisition market hinges on the January 22, 2026, finalization of the TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, a majority U.S.-owned entity controlled by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX (15% stakes each), with ByteDance retaining a minority 19.9% share. This deal, enabled by President Trump's executive order extensions, complies with the 2024 divestiture law addressing national security concerns over Chinese data access and algorithmic influence, averting a U.S. ban after years of legal battles and bids from Amazon and others. The structure secures TikTok's 170 million U.S. users and advertiser revenue, though congressional oversight and potential integration challenges with Oracle's cloud infrastructure loom as key catalysts for any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Trader sentiment on the TikTok acquisition market hinges on the January 22, 2026, finalization of the TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, a majority U.S.-owned entity controlled by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX (15% stakes each), with ByteDance retaining a minority 19.9% share. This deal, enabled by President Trump's executive order extensions, complies with the 2024 divestiture law addressing national security concerns over Chinese data access and algorithmic influence, averting a U.S. ban after years of legal battles and bids from Amazon and others. The structure secures TikTok's 170 million U.S. users and advertiser revenue, though congressional oversight and potential integration challenges with Oracle's cloud infrastructure loom as key catalysts for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 27 2026
Market reacts to continued lack of progress on TikTok acquisition and skepticism about AppLovin’s social platform plans, leading to a sharp
AppLovin drops to 1%8%
Market reacts to continued lack of progress on TikTok acquisition and skepticism about AppLovin’s social platform plans, leading to a sharp
Apr 13 2026
Business Wire reports that Walmart’s recent acquisition of Vizio and its expanded retail‑media platform are being leveraged to integrate TikTok Shop, reinforcing expectations that
Walmart dips to 6%2%
Business Wire reports that Walmart’s recent acquisition of Vizio and its expanded retail‑media platform are being leveraged to integrate TikTok Shop, reinforcing expectations that Walmart will benefit from the TikTok deal
Apr 12 2026
Verified TikTok account @elonmusk posts first video promoting Musk’s companies, sparking speculation about Musk’s interest in TikTok;
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) jumps to 9%6%
Musk also criticizes TikTok’s AI and content
Mar 22 2026
Market volatility amid TikTok ownership uncertainty, no Meta deal confirmed
Meta jumps to 11%5%
Market volatility amid TikTok ownership uncertainty, no Meta deal confirmed
Mar 20 2026
Market
Microsoft surges to 31%25%
No confirmed news of Microsoft acquiring TikTok surfaced, indicating these were likely speculative moves or unsubstantiated rumors[No direct source].
Mar 16 2026
Global Trade Magazine publishes “Oracle & Walmart Secure 60 % Stake in TikTok US Operations,” confirming the deal and describing it as a “major step toward acquisition”
Walmart surges to 22%18%
Global Trade Magazine publishes “Oracle & Walmart Secure 60 % Stake in TikTok US Operations,” confirming the deal and describing it as a “major step toward acquisition”
Mar 1 2026
AppLovin’s announcement of social platform development and job listings supporting this pivot cause a brief
AppLovin jumps to 6%5%
AppLovin’s announcement of social platform development and job listings supporting this pivot cause a brief
Feb 20 2026
Investor concerns and short-seller reports intensify, questioning AppLovin’s ability to succeed in social media and e-commerce advertising, contributing to a market cap drop and
AppLovin dips to 2%3%
Investor concerns and short-seller reports intensify, questioning AppLovin’s ability to succeed in social media and e-commerce advertising, contributing to a market cap drop and
Feb 19 2026
Bloomberg reports AppLovin is preparing to build a social networking platform after its failed TikTok bid, highlighting the company’s shift to compete directly with Meta, TikTok,
AppLovin dips to 2%2%
Bloomberg reports AppLovin is preparing to build a social networking platform after its failed TikTok bid, highlighting the company’s shift to compete directly with Meta, TikTok, and Snap in mobile advertising
Feb 13 2026
Market briefly spikes on rumors or speculation about Meta’s possible involvement or renewed interest in TikTok acquisition
Meta jumps to 9%5%
Market briefly spikes on rumors or speculation about Meta’s possible involvement or renewed interest in TikTok acquisition
Feb 13 2026
Speculation about Meta’s renewed interest in TikTok acquisition causes
Meta jumps to 9%5%
Speculation about Meta’s renewed interest in TikTok acquisition causes
Jan 26 2026
ITIF analysis of the newly announced TikTok U.S.
Walmart surges to 20%17%
joint‑venture highlights Walmart’s “close to finalizing a 60 % stake” together with Oracle, prompting a sharp rise in market confidence
Jan 22 2026
TikTok finalizes deal to establish a US entity majority-owned by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, with ByteDance retaining minority stake; no Amazon involvement
Amazon dips to 4%1%
The finalization of the US TikTok deal without Amazon confirmed the market's low probability of Amazon acquiring TikTok.
Jan 17 2026
AppLovin’s CEO and executives publicly acknowledge failure to acquire TikTok and announce plans to develop their own social networking platform, signaling a strategic pivot away
AppLovin jumps to 7%5%
AppLovin’s CEO and executives publicly acknowledge failure to acquire TikTok and announce plans to develop their own social networking platform, signaling a strategic pivot away from acquisition
Jan 15 2026
Elon Musk publicly states he has no intention to buy TikTok, emphasizing preference for building new platforms rather than acquiring legacy ones
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) rises to 4%1%
Elon Musk publicly states he has no intention to buy TikTok, emphasizing preference for building new platforms rather than acquiring legacy ones
Dec 29 2025
AppLovin’s shares peak again at 16% on speculation of renewed interest or potential deal enhancements, but no official announcement materializes
AppLovin jumps to 16%13%
AppLovin’s shares peak again at 16% on speculation of renewed interest or potential deal enhancements, but no official announcement materializes
Dec 21 2025
Market reacts negatively as AppLovin’s chances to acquire TikTok diminish due to regulatory scrutiny and competing bids, causing a sharp
AppLovin drops to 3%9%
Market reacts negatively as AppLovin’s chances to acquire TikTok diminish due to regulatory scrutiny and competing bids, causing a sharp
Dec 18 2025
TikTok signs deal to sell U.S. operations to a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, excluding Microsoft from the final agreement
Microsoft rises to 3%2%
The official signing of the deal with Oracle-led investors confirmed Microsoft was not the acquirer, but some residual speculation kept the.
Dec 18 2025
TikTok signs deal ceding US control to American investors Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX
Meta dips to 3%2%
TikTok signs deal ceding US control to American investors Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX
Dec 18 2025
TikTok agrees to cede control of US business to American investor group including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, with ByteDance retaining minority stake
Meta dips to 3%2%
Official deal announcements confirmed Meta was not the buyer, pushing
Dec 18 2025
Bloomberg reveals TikTok’s internal memo confirming a binding agreement to create a U.S.
Walmart rises to 5%3%
joint‑venture “majority‑owned by American investors,” naming Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX – reports cite Walmart as a likely partner in the consortium
Dec 18 2025
TikTok and Silver Lake sign agreements to create a new US joint venture, with Oracle-led investor group taking control; Amazon not included
Amazon drops to 1%6%
The official signing of the deal with Oracle and Silver Lake, excluding Amazon, caused a steep
Dec 18 2025
Pattern Group announces acquisition of NextWave, expanding TikTok Shop capabilities and integrating with Amazon's marketplace
Amazon rises to 5%4%
This partnership news between TikTok commerce and Amazon's marketplace may have slightly supported Amazon's perceived involvement in TikTok's ecosystem.
Dec 16 2025
Deadline extended to January 23, 2026, for TikTok’s U.S. divestiture; deal talks continue with Oracle-led consortium favored over Microsoft
Microsoft drops to 1%5%
The extension and growing favor toward Oracle and other investors reduced market confidence in Microsoft’s acquisition chances, causing a sharp.
Dec 14 2025
AppLovin’s bid for TikTok assets gains temporary market optimism amid reports of competitive bidding, pushing
AppLovin surges to 44%40%
AppLovin’s bid for TikTok assets gains temporary market optimism amid reports of competitive bidding, pushing
Nov 18 2025
Meta gains an antitrust victory partly due to TikTok’s competitive presence, but no acquisition deal announced
Meta rises to 5%1%
Positive regulatory news for Meta briefly lifted optimism, though unrelated to a TikTok purchase.
Nov 18 2025
Meta wins antitrust victory unrelated to TikTok acquisition but boosts sentiment
Meta rises to 5%1%
Meta wins antitrust victory unrelated to TikTok acquisition but boosts sentiment
Oct 29 2025
Yahoo Finance notes a temporary U.S.
Walmart rises to 5%4%
outage of TikTok and subsequent restoration, reigniting speculation about the pending sale and briefly lifts Walmart’s odds
Sep 22 2025
TechCrunch reports the Trump administration is pushing a forced sale of TikTok’s U.S.
Walmart dips to 2%3%
business and lists Walmart among the “leading contenders” alongside Microsoft and Oracle
Sep 21 2025
Fox Corp. enters talks to join TikTok investor group, signaling increased competition among bidders including Amazon
Amazon rises to 7%4%
The news of Fox joining the investor group likely raised speculation about deal dynamics, briefly boosting Amazon's
Sep 17 2025
President Trump states a group of major companies want to buy TikTok, including Microsoft among bidders, signaling a competitive bidding process
Microsoft rises to 6%1%
The confirmation of Microsoft as a serious contender alongside others kept market hopes alive, slightly increasing the.
Sep 17 2025
AppLovin publicly confirms bid to acquire TikTok’s global operations outside China, proposing a merger with TikTok Global to target the $80 billion advertising market;
AppLovin dips to 5%1%
CEO Adam Foroughi states the bid is an enhancement over existing deals with Oracle and others
Sep 16 2025
President Trump announces a US-China agreement to keep TikTok operating in the US, mentioning Amazon among bidders for TikTok's US assets
Amazon drops to 2%9%
This announcement confirmed Amazon as a bidder but also introduced uncertainty about the deal's outcome, causing a sharp
Sep 16 2025
U.S. and China reach framework agreement to keep TikTok operating in the U.S. under new American-controlled ownership; President Trump announces deal and extension of divestiture deadline to December 16, 2025
Microsoft drops to 5%6%
This announcement confirmed progress in talks but did not specify Microsoft as the acquirer, causing initial uncertainty and a.
Sep 15 2025
U.S. announces a framework deal for TikTok ownership involving American investors;
Elon Musk / X (Twitter) drops to 5%6%
Elon Musk is reported among bidders but no deal confirmed
Sep 15 2025
US and China reportedly reach a framework deal for TikTok’s US operations involving a consortium including Oracle, not Meta, signaling Meta’s low likelihood to acquire TikTok
Meta drops to 3%7%
This news dampened Meta’s acquisition chances as Oracle-led consortium emerged as the favored buyer, causing a sharp
Jan 27 2025
Donald Trump publicly says Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok and expresses desire for a bidding war over the app
Microsoft dips to 4%2%
This public acknowledgment by Trump highlighted Microsoft’s involvement but also suggested uncertainty, leading to a modest.
Jan 14 2025
Reports emerge that Chinese officials are considering selling TikTok’s U.S.
operations to Elon Musk to avoid a U.S. ban; TikTok calls these reports "pure fiction"
"Who will acquire TikTok?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Larry Ellison/Oracle" at 100%, followed by "Microsoft" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Who will acquire TikTok?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Who will acquire TikTok?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Who will acquire TikTok?" is "Larry Ellison/Oracle" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Microsoft" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Who will acquire TikTok?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will acquire TikTok?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1 million traded on “Who will acquire TikTok?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Who will acquire TikTok?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Larry Ellison/Oracle" in the "Who will acquire TikTok?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Larry Ellison/Oracle" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Who will acquire TikTok?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Who will acquire TikTok?" market has an active community of 42 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will acquire TikTok?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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