**The strong trader consensus against dissolution of the Dutch House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer) by the end of 2026 reflects the February 2026 formation of the Jetten minority cabinet following the October 2025 snap elections.** This D66-led coalition (D66-VVD-CDA, holding 66 of 150 seats) took office after the prior government collapsed, giving the sitting parliament a recent electoral mandate with the next regular election not due until 2030. No major legislative defeats, successful no-confidence motions, or acute crises have emerged since formation to trigger the constitutional process for early dissolution by the monarch on cabinet advice. While political fragmentation and the minority status create ongoing negotiation demands with opposition parties for passage of budgets or reforms, credible reporting shows no immediate catalysts shifting probabilities toward snap elections in the remainder of 2026. The market's 88.5% implied probability for "No" aligns with this post-election stability and the absence of destabilizing events in the first half of the year.