First-leg semi-final results have kept the UEFA Champions League race for home country of champion intensely competitive, with trader consensus reflecting slim margins: Paris Saint-Germain's 5-4 thriller win over Bayern Munich at Parc des Princes gives France a narrow aggregate edge, while Arsenal's 1-1 draw away at Atlético Madrid leaves England well-positioned for the Emirates return. Bayern's formidable Allianz Arena record in knockout ties and potential for comeback fuels Germany's 32% implied probability lead, closely trailed by France at 30.5% amid PSG's attacking firepower, with Arsenal's home advantage propping up England at 28%; Spain lags at 9% as Atlético's defensive resilience faces tough second-leg tests on May 5-6. Recent quarterfinal eliminations of giants like Real Madrid and Liverpool underscore the wide-open path to the May 30 final.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUEFA Champions League: Home country of champion
UEFA Champions League: Home country of champion
Germany 32%
France 31%
England 28%
Spain 9%
$75,019 Vol.
$75,019 Vol.
Germany
32%
France
31%
England
28%
Spain
9%
Germany 32%
France 31%
England 28%
Spain 9%
$75,019 Vol.
$75,019 Vol.
Germany
32%
France
31%
England
28%
Spain
9%
If at any point it becomes impossible for any club from the listed country to win the UEFA Champions League (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If at any point it becomes impossible for any club from the listed country to win the UEFA Champions League (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 UEFA Champions League champion has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...First-leg semi-final results have kept the UEFA Champions League race for home country of champion intensely competitive, with trader consensus reflecting slim margins: Paris Saint-Germain's 5-4 thriller win over Bayern Munich at Parc des Princes gives France a narrow aggregate edge, while Arsenal's 1-1 draw away at Atlético Madrid leaves England well-positioned for the Emirates return. Bayern's formidable Allianz Arena record in knockout ties and potential for comeback fuels Germany's 32% implied probability lead, closely trailed by France at 30.5% amid PSG's attacking firepower, with Arsenal's home advantage propping up England at 28%; Spain lags at 9% as Atlético's defensive resilience faces tough second-leg tests on May 5-6. Recent quarterfinal eliminations of giants like Real Madrid and Liverpool underscore the wide-open path to the May 30 final.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions