The high 87% implied probability for a ruling in Monsanto’s favor stems primarily from the Supreme Court’s April 27, 2026, oral arguments in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell. In that case, the Court is considering whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims when the EPA has not mandated a cancer warning on Roundup labels containing glyphosate. Justice questioning during arguments appeared to favor Monsanto’s preemption position over the Missouri Court of Appeals ruling that allowed the plaintiff’s claim to proceed. A decision is expected before the end of the October 2025 term in late June or early July, with the outcome likely to affect thousands of related Roundup liability suits. Trader consensus incorporates the Court’s recent history of narrowing state tort exposure in regulated product cases alongside the specific signals from argument.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto?
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, rules that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure-to-warn claims by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency.
If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high 87% implied probability for a ruling in Monsanto’s favor stems primarily from the Supreme Court’s April 27, 2026, oral arguments in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell. In that case, the Court is considering whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims when the EPA has not mandated a cancer warning on Roundup labels containing glyphosate. Justice questioning during arguments appeared to favor Monsanto’s preemption position over the Missouri Court of Appeals ruling that allowed the plaintiff’s claim to proceed. A decision is expected before the end of the October 2025 term in late June or early July, with the outcome likely to affect thousands of related Roundup liability suits. Trader consensus incorporates the Court’s recent history of narrowing state tort exposure in regulated product cases alongside the specific signals from argument.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, rules that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure-to-warn claims by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency.
If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency.
If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$272End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, rules that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure-to-warn claims by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency.
If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high 87% implied probability for a ruling in Monsanto’s favor stems primarily from the Supreme Court’s April 27, 2026, oral arguments in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell. In that case, the Court is considering whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims when the EPA has not mandated a cancer warning on Roundup labels containing glyphosate. Justice questioning during arguments appeared to favor Monsanto’s preemption position over the Missouri Court of Appeals ruling that allowed the plaintiff’s claim to proceed. A decision is expected before the end of the October 2025 term in late June or early July, with the outcome likely to affect thousands of related Roundup liability suits. Trader consensus incorporates the Court’s recent history of narrowing state tort exposure in regulated product cases alongside the specific signals from argument.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, rules that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure-to-warn claims by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency.
If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency.
If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$272End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high 87% implied probability for a ruling in Monsanto’s favor stems primarily from the Supreme Court’s April 27, 2026, oral arguments in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell. In that case, the Court is considering whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims when the EPA has not mandated a cancer warning on Roundup labels containing glyphosate. Justice questioning during arguments appeared to favor Monsanto’s preemption position over the Missouri Court of Appeals ruling that allowed the plaintiff’s claim to proceed. A decision is expected before the end of the October 2025 term in late June or early July, with the outcome likely to affect thousands of related Roundup liability suits. Trader consensus incorporates the Court’s recent history of narrowing state tort exposure in regulated product cases alongside the specific signals from argument.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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