Official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations confirm Seoul's total April 2026 precipitation at 37 mm—well below the 40 mm threshold—driving the market's 98.2% implied probability for under 40 mm. This dry outcome, just 51% of the 73 mm seasonal normal, stems from limited rain events: notable showers on April 9 (15.7 mm) and 10 (10.5 mm), with lighter precipitation scattered on five other days amid predominantly clear spring conditions influenced by high-pressure systems. Trader consensus reflects this verified station data from Seoul's primary weather observatory. Realistic challenges would require rare measurement revisions or late adjustments in final KMA summaries, expected shortly, though current tallies leave ample margin below 40 mm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seoul in April?
Precipitation in Seoul in April?
<40mm 98.2%
55-60mm 4.8%
75mm+ 2.1%
65-70mm <1%
$45,476 Vol.
$45,476 Vol.
<40mm
98%
40-45mm
<1%
45-50mm
<1%
50-55mm
<1%
55-60mm
5%
60-65mm
<1%
65-70mm
<1%
70-75mm
<1%
75mm+
2%
<40mm 98.2%
55-60mm 4.8%
75mm+ 2.1%
65-70mm <1%
$45,476 Vol.
$45,476 Vol.
<40mm
98%
40-45mm
<1%
45-50mm
<1%
50-55mm
<1%
55-60mm
5%
60-65mm
<1%
65-70mm
<1%
70-75mm
<1%
75mm+
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations confirm Seoul's total April 2026 precipitation at 37 mm—well below the 40 mm threshold—driving the market's 98.2% implied probability for under 40 mm. This dry outcome, just 51% of the 73 mm seasonal normal, stems from limited rain events: notable showers on April 9 (15.7 mm) and 10 (10.5 mm), with lighter precipitation scattered on five other days amid predominantly clear spring conditions influenced by high-pressure systems. Trader consensus reflects this verified station data from Seoul's primary weather observatory. Realistic challenges would require rare measurement revisions or late adjustments in final KMA summaries, expected shortly, though current tallies leave ample margin below 40 mm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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