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icon for Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?
Finance·MSFT

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?

icon for Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?
Finance·MSFT

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?

May 11

May 11

NEW
May 11, 2026
Polymarket

$57 Vol.

Polymarket

$400

$26 Vol.

98%

$410

$0 Vol.

49%

$420

$0 Vol.

49%

$430

$0 Vol.

49%

$440

$31 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft (MSFT) shares have rebounded to around $421, up over 4% in the past week from post-earnings lows near $398, following the April 29 fiscal Q3 2026 results that beat estimates with adjusted EPS of $4.27 versus $4.06 expected and robust 40% Azure cloud growth fueled by AI demand. This recovery reflects sustained trader confidence in Microsoft's enterprise software dominance and $190 billion capex commitment to AI infrastructure, despite a forward P/E multiple near 35 amid broader market rotation away from megacaps. Analyst consensus targets average $562, implying 33% upside, but near-term sentiment for a May 11 close hinges on weekend macro developments like inflation data and Nasdaq momentum, with key support at $412.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$57
End Date
May 11, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft (MSFT) shares have rebounded to around $421, up over 4% in the past week from post-earnings lows near $398, following the April 29 fiscal Q3 2026 results that beat estimates with adjusted EPS of $4.27 versus $4.06 expected and robust 40% Azure cloud growth fueled by AI demand. This recovery reflects sustained trader confidence in Microsoft's enterprise software dominance and $190 billion capex commitment to AI infrastructure, despite a forward P/E multiple near 35 amid broader market rotation away from megacaps. Analyst consensus targets average $562, implying 33% upside, but near-term sentiment for a May 11 close hinges on weekend macro developments like inflation data and Nasdaq momentum, with key support at $412.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$57
End Date
May 11, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on May 11 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$400" at 98%, followed by "$420" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?" is "$400" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$420" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on May 11?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.