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Sports·Awards

MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner

icon for MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner
Sports·Awards

MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner

Tarik Skubal 22%

Parker Messick 18.4%

Max Fried 14.4%

Dylan Cease 12.6%

Polymarket

$12,236 Vol.

Tarik Skubal 22%

Parker Messick 18.4%

Max Fried 14.4%

Dylan Cease 12.6%

Polymarket

$12,236 Vol.

Tarik Skubal

$1,032 Vol.

28%

Garrett Crochet

$1,334 Vol.

2%

Jacob deGrom

$866 Vol.

7%

Cole Ragans

$384 Vol.

1%

Hunter Brown

$264 Vol.

5%

Max Fried

$793 Vol.

14%

Bryan Woo

$753 Vol.

9%

Logan Gilbert

$414 Vol.

6%

Kyle Bradish

$234 Vol.

2%

Joe Ryan

$566 Vol.

5%

Ranger Suarez

$206 Vol.

5%

Nathan Eovaldi

$173 Vol.

5%

Dylan Cease

$550 Vol.

13%

George Kirby

$233 Vol.

6%

Carlos Rodón

$437 Vol.

5%

Kevin Gausman

$294 Vol.

5%

MacKenzie Gore

$513 Vol.

5%

Jose Soriano

$865 Vol.

13%

Pablo Lopez

$941 Vol.

6%

Gavin Williams

$148 Vol.

6%

Bryce Miller

$173 Vol.

14%

Cam Schlittler

$740 Vol.

12%

Gerrit Cole

$178 Vol.

5%

Parker Messick

$145 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a tightly contested 2026 AL Cy Young race a month into the season, with Tarik Skubal's 21% implied probability edging Parker Messick at 18.6% amid small-sample volatility favoring multiple sub-3.00 ERA performers. Defending two-time winner Skubal remains steady for the Tigers with a 2.72 ERA and seven strikeouts over seven innings in his April 29 start, but Guardians rookie Messick surges on a 1.73 ERA highlighted by a no-hitter into the ninth versus Baltimore. Max Fried thrives post-trade to the Yankees (2.09 ERA, 4-1), while Jose Soriano, Bryce Miller, and Cam Schlittler post strong early outings in Angels, Mariners, and Yankees rotations, underscoring deep AL pitching talent and workload uncertainties over 160+ games.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,236
End Date
Nov 12, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a tightly contested 2026 AL Cy Young race a month into the season, with Tarik Skubal's 21% implied probability edging Parker Messick at 18.6% amid small-sample volatility favoring multiple sub-3.00 ERA performers. Defending two-time winner Skubal remains steady for the Tigers with a 2.72 ERA and seven strikeouts over seven innings in his April 29 start, but Guardians rookie Messick surges on a 1.73 ERA highlighted by a no-hitter into the ninth versus Baltimore. Max Fried thrives post-trade to the Yankees (2.09 ERA, 4-1), while Jose Soriano, Bryce Miller, and Cam Schlittler post strong early outings in Angels, Mariners, and Yankees rotations, underscoring deep AL pitching talent and workload uncertainties over 160+ games.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,236
End Date
Nov 12, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tarik Skubal" at 28%, followed by "Parker Messick" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner" has generated $12.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner" is "Tarik Skubal" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Parker Messick" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.