Belgium leads trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability to win FIFA World Cup 2026 Group G, bolstered by their top-10 FIFA ranking, recent return of Kevin De Bruyne from a lengthy thigh injury, and superior depth against lower-ranked opponents. Egypt sits second at 17.0% on Mohamed Salah's ongoing scoring form from qualifiers and strong African campaign, positioning them as realistic challengers in a group where top two advance. Iran's 9.7% reflects doubts over participation amid escalating US tensions, with warm-up friendlies cancelled this week and all Group G matches scheduled on US soil in Los Angeles and Seattle. New Zealand trails at 1.5% as Oceania's sole rep, hampered by 85th global ranking and limited firepower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBelgium 68%
Egypt 17%
Iran 8.6%
New Zealand 1.5%
$53,348 Vol.
$53,348 Vol.
Belgium
68%
Egypt
17%
Iran
10%
New Zealand
2%
Belgium 68%
Egypt 17%
Iran 8.6%
New Zealand 1.5%
$53,348 Vol.
$53,348 Vol.
Belgium
68%
Egypt
17%
Iran
10%
New Zealand
2%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 6:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Belgium leads trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability to win FIFA World Cup 2026 Group G, bolstered by their top-10 FIFA ranking, recent return of Kevin De Bruyne from a lengthy thigh injury, and superior depth against lower-ranked opponents. Egypt sits second at 17.0% on Mohamed Salah's ongoing scoring form from qualifiers and strong African campaign, positioning them as realistic challengers in a group where top two advance. Iran's 9.7% reflects doubts over participation amid escalating US tensions, with warm-up friendlies cancelled this week and all Group G matches scheduled on US soil in Los Angeles and Seattle. New Zealand trails at 1.5% as Oceania's sole rep, hampered by 85th global ranking and limited firepower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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