France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Polymarket, surpassing Spain's 15.3% after Barcelona prodigy Lamine Yamal suffered a serious knee injury last week, sidelining the 18-year-old creator and exposing vulnerabilities in La Roja's youthful attack despite their Euro 2024 triumph. England (11.1%), defending champions Argentina and Brazil (both 8.6%) cluster tightly behind, as late club-season injury waves— including doubts over France's Kylian Mbappé, England's Jack Grealish, and Brazil's Rodrygo—underscore roster uncertainties for all top contenders. With all 48 teams qualified, groups drawn since December, and the expanded format amplifying knockout volatility, trader consensus prices a hyper-competitive field where European depth, host-nation edges for USA/Canada/Mexico notwithstanding, and momentum from recent internationals keep probabilities bunched among balanced powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$952,281,509 Vol.
$952,281,509 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$952,281,509 Vol.
$952,281,509 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Polymarket, surpassing Spain's 15.3% after Barcelona prodigy Lamine Yamal suffered a serious knee injury last week, sidelining the 18-year-old creator and exposing vulnerabilities in La Roja's youthful attack despite their Euro 2024 triumph. England (11.1%), defending champions Argentina and Brazil (both 8.6%) cluster tightly behind, as late club-season injury waves— including doubts over France's Kylian Mbappé, England's Jack Grealish, and Brazil's Rodrygo—underscore roster uncertainties for all top contenders. With all 48 teams qualified, groups drawn since December, and the expanded format amplifying knockout volatility, trader consensus prices a hyper-competitive field where European depth, host-nation edges for USA/Canada/Mexico notwithstanding, and momentum from recent internationals keep probabilities bunched among balanced powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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