Anthropic's Claude AI service faced a surge of incidents in late April 2026, with outages on April 25, 27, 28, 29, and 30—including claude.ai unavailability, API disruptions, and elevated errors on models like Haiku 4.5 and Opus 4.7—driving trader consensus to 72.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. Despite April's 98.86% overall uptime, these frequent partial outages signal ongoing infrastructure strains from rapid scaling and large language model deployments, echoing earlier disruptions on April 7 and 15. The 30.5% odds on 9-11 days reflect some optimism for mitigation, but unresolved root causes keep low-downtime outcomes below 10%. Monitor Anthropic's status page for early May catalysts that could validate or challenge this sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado12+ 73%
9-11 30%
6-8 7.6%
0-2 1.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
0-2
2%
3-5
<1%
6-8
8%
9-11
30%
12+
73%
12+ 73%
9-11 30%
6-8 7.6%
0-2 1.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
0-2
$1,098 Vol.
2%
3-5
$1,043 Vol.
<1%
6-8
$171 Vol.
8%
9-11
$326 Vol.
30%
12+
$845 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude AI service faced a surge of incidents in late April 2026, with outages on April 25, 27, 28, 29, and 30—including claude.ai unavailability, API disruptions, and elevated errors on models like Haiku 4.5 and Opus 4.7—driving trader consensus to 72.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. Despite April's 98.86% overall uptime, these frequent partial outages signal ongoing infrastructure strains from rapid scaling and large language model deployments, echoing earlier disruptions on April 7 and 15. The 30.5% odds on 9-11 days reflect some optimism for mitigation, but unresolved root causes keep low-downtime outcomes below 10%. Monitor Anthropic's status page for early May catalysts that could validate or challenge this sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$3,483Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude AI service faced a surge of incidents in late April 2026, with outages on April 25, 27, 28, 29, and 30—including claude.ai unavailability, API disruptions, and elevated errors on models like Haiku 4.5 and Opus 4.7—driving trader consensus to 72.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. Despite April's 98.86% overall uptime, these frequent partial outages signal ongoing infrastructure strains from rapid scaling and large language model deployments, echoing earlier disruptions on April 7 and 15. The 30.5% odds on 9-11 days reflect some optimism for mitigation, but unresolved root causes keep low-downtime outcomes below 10%. Monitor Anthropic's status page for early May catalysts that could validate or challenge this sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$3,483Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude AI service faced a surge of incidents in late April 2026, with outages on April 25, 27, 28, 29, and 30—including claude.ai unavailability, API disruptions, and elevated errors on models like Haiku 4.5 and Opus 4.7—driving trader consensus to 72.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. Despite April's 98.86% overall uptime, these frequent partial outages signal ongoing infrastructure strains from rapid scaling and large language model deployments, echoing earlier disruptions on April 7 and 15. The 30.5% odds on 9-11 days reflect some optimism for mitigation, but unresolved root causes keep low-downtime outcomes below 10%. Monitor Anthropic's status page for early May catalysts that could validate or challenge this sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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