Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May at 73% implied probability, driven by Anthropic's persistent infrastructure challenges exposed in April, where the service registered outages nearly every day amid surging user demand post-Claude 4 launch. Recent incidents on April 28 and 15 highlighted login failures, API errors, and UI breakdowns under peak load, attributed to scaling web infrastructure rather than core AI models, as confirmed by status updates and widespread user reports on Downdetector. While optimizations like quantization and batching boost throughput, they've correlated with reliability dips; traders anticipate similar dynamics in May absent major capacity upgrades, though swift engineering fixes could trim outages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado12+ 73%
9-11 26%
6-8 6.2%
0-2 1.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
0-2
1%
3-5
<1%
6-8
6%
9-11
26%
12+
73%
12+ 73%
9-11 26%
6-8 6.2%
0-2 1.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
0-2
$1,151 Vol.
1%
3-5
$1,043 Vol.
<1%
6-8
$171 Vol.
6%
9-11
$326 Vol.
26%
12+
$845 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May at 73% implied probability, driven by Anthropic's persistent infrastructure challenges exposed in April, where the service registered outages nearly every day amid surging user demand post-Claude 4 launch. Recent incidents on April 28 and 15 highlighted login failures, API errors, and UI breakdowns under peak load, attributed to scaling web infrastructure rather than core AI models, as confirmed by status updates and widespread user reports on Downdetector. While optimizations like quantization and batching boost throughput, they've correlated with reliability dips; traders anticipate similar dynamics in May absent major capacity upgrades, though swift engineering fixes could trim outages.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$3,536Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May at 73% implied probability, driven by Anthropic's persistent infrastructure challenges exposed in April, where the service registered outages nearly every day amid surging user demand post-Claude 4 launch. Recent incidents on April 28 and 15 highlighted login failures, API errors, and UI breakdowns under peak load, attributed to scaling web infrastructure rather than core AI models, as confirmed by status updates and widespread user reports on Downdetector. While optimizations like quantization and batching boost throughput, they've correlated with reliability dips; traders anticipate similar dynamics in May absent major capacity upgrades, though swift engineering fixes could trim outages.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$3,536Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May at 73% implied probability, driven by Anthropic's persistent infrastructure challenges exposed in April, where the service registered outages nearly every day amid surging user demand post-Claude 4 launch. Recent incidents on April 28 and 15 highlighted login failures, API errors, and UI breakdowns under peak load, attributed to scaling web infrastructure rather than core AI models, as confirmed by status updates and widespread user reports on Downdetector. While optimizations like quantization and batching boost throughput, they've correlated with reliability dips; traders anticipate similar dynamics in May absent major capacity upgrades, though swift engineering fixes could trim outages.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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