Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest graphical tropical weather outlook showing zero disturbances with formation potential over the next seven days and a quiescent Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The most recent Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion confirms no tropical waves warranting development chances amid high pressure dominance and scattered convection along the monsoon trough with negligible organization. Historically, no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851, per NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Recent April forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity due to emerging El Niño boosting vertical wind shear, suppressing early-season threats; NHC resumes routine outlooks May 15.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$16,827 Vol.
$16,827 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$16,827 Vol.
$16,827 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest graphical tropical weather outlook showing zero disturbances with formation potential over the next seven days and a quiescent Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The most recent Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion confirms no tropical waves warranting development chances amid high pressure dominance and scattered convection along the monsoon trough with negligible organization. Historically, no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851, per NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Recent April forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity due to emerging El Niño boosting vertical wind shear, suppressing early-season threats; NHC resumes routine outlooks May 15.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$16,827Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest graphical tropical weather outlook showing zero disturbances with formation potential over the next seven days and a quiescent Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The most recent Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion confirms no tropical waves warranting development chances amid high pressure dominance and scattered convection along the monsoon trough with negligible organization. Historically, no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851, per NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Recent April forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity due to emerging El Niño boosting vertical wind shear, suppressing early-season threats; NHC resumes routine outlooks May 15.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volumen
$16,827Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest graphical tropical weather outlook showing zero disturbances with formation potential over the next seven days and a quiescent Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The most recent Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion confirms no tropical waves warranting development chances amid high pressure dominance and scattered convection along the monsoon trough with negligible organization. Historically, no continental U.S. hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) has made landfall in May since records began in 1851, per NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Recent April forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity due to emerging El Niño boosting vertical wind shear, suppressing early-season threats; NHC resumes routine outlooks May 15.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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