Trader consensus tilts slightly toward no US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with "No" at 50.5%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of President Trump's planned summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing. Recent developments include Treasury Secretary Bessent's April statements aiming to de-risk US supply chains from China in critical minerals and agriculture, where Beijing dominates 90% of rare earth processing vital for defense tech. A fragile 2025-2026 tariff truce—suspended reciprocal hikes via executive orders—holds, but tensions over Taiwan, soybeans, and pork exports persist, with US trade data stabilizing yet China's surplus dipping. A summit breakthrough on mutual reductions could surge "Yes" odds; stalemate or escalation would solidify "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus tilts slightly toward no US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with "No" at 50.5%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of President Trump's planned summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing. Recent developments include Treasury Secretary Bessent's April statements aiming to de-risk US supply chains from China in critical minerals and agriculture, where Beijing dominates 90% of rare earth processing vital for defense tech. A fragile 2025-2026 tariff truce—suspended reciprocal hikes via executive orders—holds, but tensions over Taiwan, soybeans, and pork exports persist, with US trade data stabilizing yet China's surplus dipping. A summit breakthrough on mutual reductions could surge "Yes" odds; stalemate or escalation would solidify "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$436Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus tilts slightly toward no US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with "No" at 50.5%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of President Trump's planned summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing. Recent developments include Treasury Secretary Bessent's April statements aiming to de-risk US supply chains from China in critical minerals and agriculture, where Beijing dominates 90% of rare earth processing vital for defense tech. A fragile 2025-2026 tariff truce—suspended reciprocal hikes via executive orders—holds, but tensions over Taiwan, soybeans, and pork exports persist, with US trade data stabilizing yet China's surplus dipping. A summit breakthrough on mutual reductions could surge "Yes" odds; stalemate or escalation would solidify "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$477Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus tilts slightly toward no US-China tariff agreement by May 31, with "No" at 50.5%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of President Trump's planned summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15 in Beijing. Recent developments include Treasury Secretary Bessent's April statements aiming to de-risk US supply chains from China in critical minerals and agriculture, where Beijing dominates 90% of rare earth processing vital for defense tech. A fragile 2025-2026 tariff truce—suspended reciprocal hikes via executive orders—holds, but tensions over Taiwan, soybeans, and pork exports persist, with US trade data stabilizing yet China's surplus dipping. A summit breakthrough on mutual reductions could surge "Yes" odds; stalemate or escalation would solidify "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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