Skip to main content
icon for ¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?
Política·Venezuela

¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?
Política·Venezuela

¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?

dic 31

dic 31

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by year-end, reflecting the Trump administration's January 2026 military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and prompted recognition of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president under constitutional succession, bypassing the opposition figure despite her Nobel Peace Prize win and White House meeting where she presented her medal to President Trump. Subsequent diplomatic reestablishment in March solidified ties with Rodríguez's government amid frustrations with Machado's post-election positioning and her push for new polls, positioning her as a sidelined contender rather than endorsed leader. With stability prioritized over opposition installation, only a major policy reversal or snap elections elevating Machado could shift odds, though none appear imminent.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$3,530
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by year-end, reflecting the Trump administration's January 2026 military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and prompted recognition of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president under constitutional succession, bypassing the opposition figure despite her Nobel Peace Prize win and White House meeting where she presented her medal to President Trump. Subsequent diplomatic reestablishment in March solidified ties with Rodríguez's government amid frustrations with Machado's post-election positioning and her push for new polls, positioning her as a sidelined contender rather than endorsed leader. With stability prioritized over opposition installation, only a major policy reversal or snap elections elevating Machado could shift odds, though none appear imminent.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$3,530
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" con 13%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 13¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" es "¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" con 13%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos reconocerá a Machado como líder de Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.