Recent observational data and forecast models indicate that a developing El Niño, formally declared by NOAA in mid-June, is sustaining elevated global surface temperatures near 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for the month. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus analyses, with anomalies consistent with the upper end of recent years following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and only modest La Niña cooling in 2025. Weak-to-moderate Niño conditions are expected to intensify through northern summer, adding positive sea-surface temperature forcing that aligns trader consensus with the 1.15–1.19 °C bin at 55.5 % implied probability; higher bins remain possible if June anomalies exceed model runs, while cooler outcomes would require rapid weakening not currently supported by Pacific monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 56%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,702 Vol.
$10,702 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
56%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 56%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,702 Vol.
$10,702 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,040 Vol.
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 Vol.
56%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,867 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,420 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$992 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data and forecast models indicate that a developing El Niño, formally declared by NOAA in mid-June, is sustaining elevated global surface temperatures near 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for the month. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus analyses, with anomalies consistent with the upper end of recent years following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and only modest La Niña cooling in 2025. Weak-to-moderate Niño conditions are expected to intensify through northern summer, adding positive sea-surface temperature forcing that aligns trader consensus with the 1.15–1.19 °C bin at 55.5 % implied probability; higher bins remain possible if June anomalies exceed model runs, while cooler outcomes would require rapid weakening not currently supported by Pacific monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$10,702Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data and forecast models indicate that a developing El Niño, formally declared by NOAA in mid-June, is sustaining elevated global surface temperatures near 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for the month. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus analyses, with anomalies consistent with the upper end of recent years following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and only modest La Niña cooling in 2025. Weak-to-moderate Niño conditions are expected to intensify through northern summer, adding positive sea-surface temperature forcing that aligns trader consensus with the 1.15–1.19 °C bin at 55.5 % implied probability; higher bins remain possible if June anomalies exceed model runs, while cooler outcomes would require rapid weakening not currently supported by Pacific monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$10,702Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data and forecast models indicate that a developing El Niño, formally declared by NOAA in mid-June, is sustaining elevated global surface temperatures near 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for the month. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus analyses, with anomalies consistent with the upper end of recent years following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and only modest La Niña cooling in 2025. Weak-to-moderate Niño conditions are expected to intensify through northern summer, adding positive sea-surface temperature forcing that aligns trader consensus with the 1.15–1.19 °C bin at 55.5 % implied probability; higher bins remain possible if June anomalies exceed model runs, while cooler outcomes would require rapid weakening not currently supported by Pacific monitoring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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