Recent trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June 2026 global surface temperature anomaly (pre-industrial baseline) reflects the ongoing transition to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June with strengthening expected through year-end, alongside May 2026’s second-warmest ranking in Copernicus ERA5 data at 1.42°C above 1850–1900. This follows elevated 2024–2025 warmth driven by prior El Niño and underlying anthropogenic forcing, with long-term warming rates near 0.2°C per decade sustaining high baselines despite La Niña decay earlier in 2026. Monthly variability, model spread in short-term forecasts, and typical boreal summer ENSO lag effects introduce uncertainty, though official agency monitoring through July will refine near-term trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 55%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,702 Vol.
$10,702 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
55%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 55%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,702 Vol.
$10,702 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,023 Vol.
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 Vol.
55%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,867 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,420 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$992 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June 2026 global surface temperature anomaly (pre-industrial baseline) reflects the ongoing transition to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June with strengthening expected through year-end, alongside May 2026’s second-warmest ranking in Copernicus ERA5 data at 1.42°C above 1850–1900. This follows elevated 2024–2025 warmth driven by prior El Niño and underlying anthropogenic forcing, with long-term warming rates near 0.2°C per decade sustaining high baselines despite La Niña decay earlier in 2026. Monthly variability, model spread in short-term forecasts, and typical boreal summer ENSO lag effects introduce uncertainty, though official agency monitoring through July will refine near-term trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$10,702Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June 2026 global surface temperature anomaly (pre-industrial baseline) reflects the ongoing transition to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June with strengthening expected through year-end, alongside May 2026’s second-warmest ranking in Copernicus ERA5 data at 1.42°C above 1850–1900. This follows elevated 2024–2025 warmth driven by prior El Niño and underlying anthropogenic forcing, with long-term warming rates near 0.2°C per decade sustaining high baselines despite La Niña decay earlier in 2026. Monthly variability, model spread in short-term forecasts, and typical boreal summer ENSO lag effects introduce uncertainty, though official agency monitoring through July will refine near-term trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$10,702Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June 2026 global surface temperature anomaly (pre-industrial baseline) reflects the ongoing transition to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June with strengthening expected through year-end, alongside May 2026’s second-warmest ranking in Copernicus ERA5 data at 1.42°C above 1850–1900. This follows elevated 2024–2025 warmth driven by prior El Niño and underlying anthropogenic forcing, with long-term warming rates near 0.2°C per decade sustaining high baselines despite La Niña decay earlier in 2026. Monthly variability, model spread in short-term forecasts, and typical boreal summer ENSO lag effects introduce uncertainty, though official agency monitoring through July will refine near-term trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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