**The market-implied odds of 94.5% on "No" for a confirmed Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade relationship by June 30 reflect the couple’s well-documented on-and-off history ending in a clear split, combined with the absence of any recent public signals pointing to reconciliation.** Their relationship, first linked in late 2021, featured multiple reconciliations and breaks, with the most recent definitive end reported in October 2025 after a brief September rekindling. Sources at the time described it as “fully over,” and subsequent sightings in January 2026 around a *Frankenstein* screening generated rumors but were followed by February reports that Olivia Jade was moving on and exploring other connections. By May 2026, she referred to her dating life as a “closed book” in interviews tied to her beauty brand launch. With the June 30 deadline now only weeks away and no verified statements, joint appearances, or credible reports of renewed commitment in 2026, traders see little realistic path to an official confirmation. The short timeline further reduces the chance of a sudden public pivot. That said, entertainment relationships can shift quickly; a surprise joint statement, red-carpet appearance, or verified social media post before the cutoff remains a low-probability but possible upset scenario that could move the market.