Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, closely mirroring the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% for FY27, with quarterly breakdowns peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid upside risks from Mideast geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. This shift follows March 2026 CPI quickening to 3.4% year-over-year—the highest in 13 months—driven by food inflation at 3.87%, rebounding from FY26's subdued 2.0% average base. Lower buckets reflect limited scope for sub-4% outcomes given sticky core pressures and RBI's neutral repo rate stance at 5.25%; watch April CPI release for near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,50%+ 66%
3,75% a 4,49% 23%
<0,75% 8%
3,00% a 3,74% 5.0%
$59,580 Vol.
$59,580 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
8%
0,75% a 1,49%
4%
1,50% a 2,24%
4%
2.25% a 2.99%
3%
3,00% a 3,74%
5%
3,75% a 4,49%
29%
4,50%+
66%
4,50%+ 66%
3,75% a 4,49% 23%
<0,75% 8%
3,00% a 3,74% 5.0%
$59,580 Vol.
$59,580 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$747 Vol.
8%
0,75% a 1,49%
$499 Vol.
4%
1,50% a 2,24%
$410 Vol.
4%
2.25% a 2.99%
$23,413 Vol.
3%
3,00% a 3,74%
$497 Vol.
5%
3,75% a 4,49%
$22,851 Vol.
29%
4,50%+
$11,163 Vol.
66%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, closely mirroring the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% for FY27, with quarterly breakdowns peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid upside risks from Mideast geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. This shift follows March 2026 CPI quickening to 3.4% year-over-year—the highest in 13 months—driven by food inflation at 3.87%, rebounding from FY26's subdued 2.0% average base. Lower buckets reflect limited scope for sub-4% outcomes given sticky core pressures and RBI's neutral repo rate stance at 5.25%; watch April CPI release for near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$59,580Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, closely mirroring the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% for FY27, with quarterly breakdowns peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid upside risks from Mideast geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. This shift follows March 2026 CPI quickening to 3.4% year-over-year—the highest in 13 months—driven by food inflation at 3.87%, rebounding from FY26's subdued 2.0% average base. Lower buckets reflect limited scope for sub-4% outcomes given sticky core pressures and RBI's neutral repo rate stance at 5.25%; watch April CPI release for near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$59,580Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, closely mirroring the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% for FY27, with quarterly breakdowns peaking at 5.2% in Q3 amid upside risks from Mideast geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. This shift follows March 2026 CPI quickening to 3.4% year-over-year—the highest in 13 months—driven by food inflation at 3.87%, rebounding from FY26's subdued 2.0% average base. Lower buckets reflect limited scope for sub-4% outcomes given sticky core pressures and RBI's neutral repo rate stance at 5.25%; watch April CPI release for near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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