River Plate's 62% implied probability as trader consensus favorite stems from their home dominance at Estadio Más Monumental and superior head-to-head record, including a 2-0 league win over Gimnasia in January 2026, bolstering confidence in coach Eduardo Coudet's side despite a gritty penalty-shootout advancement past San Lorenzo. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata's 13.5% underdog pricing reflects their red-hot five-match winning streak with consecutive clean sheets under Ariel Pereyra—highlighted by knocking out Vélez—but is checked by suspensions (Enzo Martínez) and injuries (Facundo Di Biasi, Ivo Mammini). River's defensive tweaks, including Fabricio Bustos replacing Gonzalo Montiel (warm-up injury), maintain depth, while the 25.5% draw odds capture knockout tension in this Apertura quarterfinal. Cloudy conditions at 12°C pose minimal disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIf CA River Plate wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbolResolver
0x69c47De9D...If CA River Plate wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbolResolver
0x69c47De9D...River Plate's 62% implied probability as trader consensus favorite stems from their home dominance at Estadio Más Monumental and superior head-to-head record, including a 2-0 league win over Gimnasia in January 2026, bolstering confidence in coach Eduardo Coudet's side despite a gritty penalty-shootout advancement past San Lorenzo. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata's 13.5% underdog pricing reflects their red-hot five-match winning streak with consecutive clean sheets under Ariel Pereyra—highlighted by knocking out Vélez—but is checked by suspensions (Enzo Martínez) and injuries (Facundo Di Biasi, Ivo Mammini). River's defensive tweaks, including Fabricio Bustos replacing Gonzalo Montiel (warm-up injury), maintain depth, while the 25.5% draw odds capture knockout tension in this Apertura quarterfinal. Cloudy conditions at 12°C pose minimal disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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