Islam Makhachev’s capture of the UFC welterweight title via dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in November 2025 anchors trader consensus at 75.5 percent, reflecting his seamless move up from lightweight and established elite grappling and striking. Recent form from top-ranked contenders such as Ian Machado Garry, who earned statement victories and sits atop current rankings, and Carlos Prates, who climbed with multiple stoppage wins, supports their respective 15.7 percent and 9.3 percent implied probabilities as the most credible threats for a 2026 title challenge. Shavkat Rakhmonov’s prolonged injury absence and the rest of the division’s sub-1 percent shares underscore the significant barriers any challenger faces against Makhachev’s experience and physical advantages in a stacked but currently stabilized 170-pound landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIslam Makhachev 75%
Ian Machado Garry 10.8%
Carlos Prates 2.1%
Shavkat Rakhmonov <1%
$608,729 Vol.
$608,729 Vol.
Islam Makhachev
75%
Ian Machado Garry
16%
Carlos Prates
9%
Shavkat Rakhmonov
<1%
Kamaru Usman
<1%
Michael Morales
<1%
Sean Brady
<1%
Gabriel Bonfim
<1%
Jack Della Maddalena
<1%
Belal Muhammad
<1%
Leon Edwards
<1%
Joaquin Buckley
<1%
Islam Makhachev 75%
Ian Machado Garry 10.8%
Carlos Prates 2.1%
Shavkat Rakhmonov <1%
$608,729 Vol.
$608,729 Vol.
Islam Makhachev
75%
Ian Machado Garry
16%
Carlos Prates
9%
Shavkat Rakhmonov
<1%
Kamaru Usman
<1%
Michael Morales
<1%
Sean Brady
<1%
Gabriel Bonfim
<1%
Jack Della Maddalena
<1%
Belal Muhammad
<1%
Leon Edwards
<1%
Joaquin Buckley
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Islam Makhachev’s capture of the UFC welterweight title via dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in November 2025 anchors trader consensus at 75.5 percent, reflecting his seamless move up from lightweight and established elite grappling and striking. Recent form from top-ranked contenders such as Ian Machado Garry, who earned statement victories and sits atop current rankings, and Carlos Prates, who climbed with multiple stoppage wins, supports their respective 15.7 percent and 9.3 percent implied probabilities as the most credible threats for a 2026 title challenge. Shavkat Rakhmonov’s prolonged injury absence and the rest of the division’s sub-1 percent shares underscore the significant barriers any challenger faces against Makhachev’s experience and physical advantages in a stacked but currently stabilized 170-pound landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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