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Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 75%

Ian Machado Garry 10.8%

Carlos Prates 2.1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov <1%

Polymarket

$608,729 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 75%

Ian Machado Garry 10.8%

Carlos Prates 2.1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov <1%

Polymarket

$608,729 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$6,082 Vol.

75%

Ian Machado Garry

$2,790 Vol.

16%

Carlos Prates

$1,589 Vol.

9%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$201,300 Vol.

<1%

Kamaru Usman

$365,488 Vol.

<1%

Michael Morales

$4,626 Vol.

<1%

Sean Brady

$1,421 Vol.

<1%

Gabriel Bonfim

$0 Vol.

<1%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,871 Vol.

<1%

Belal Muhammad

$1,095 Vol.

<1%

Leon Edwards

$1,197 Vol.

<1%

Joaquin Buckley

$21,274 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev’s capture of the UFC welterweight title via dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in November 2025 anchors trader consensus at 75.5 percent, reflecting his seamless move up from lightweight and established elite grappling and striking. Recent form from top-ranked contenders such as Ian Machado Garry, who earned statement victories and sits atop current rankings, and Carlos Prates, who climbed with multiple stoppage wins, supports their respective 15.7 percent and 9.3 percent implied probabilities as the most credible threats for a 2026 title challenge. Shavkat Rakhmonov’s prolonged injury absence and the rest of the division’s sub-1 percent shares underscore the significant barriers any challenger faces against Makhachev’s experience and physical advantages in a stacked but currently stabilized 170-pound landscape.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$608,729
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev’s capture of the UFC welterweight title via dominant unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 in November 2025 anchors trader consensus at 75.5 percent, reflecting his seamless move up from lightweight and established elite grappling and striking. Recent form from top-ranked contenders such as Ian Machado Garry, who earned statement victories and sits atop current rankings, and Carlos Prates, who climbed with multiple stoppage wins, supports their respective 15.7 percent and 9.3 percent implied probabilities as the most credible threats for a 2026 title challenge. Shavkat Rakhmonov’s prolonged injury absence and the rest of the division’s sub-1 percent shares underscore the significant barriers any challenger faces against Makhachev’s experience and physical advantages in a stacked but currently stabilized 170-pound landscape.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$608,729
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 75%, followed by "Ian Machado Garry" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $608.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ian Machado Garry" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.