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icon for Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

icon for Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

The Lost Boys 48%

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) 30%

Titaníque 27%

Schmigadoon! 0

Polymarket
NEW

The Lost Boys 48%

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) 30%

Titaníque 27%

Schmigadoon! 0

Polymarket
NEW

The Lost Boys

$4 Vol.

28%

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

$0 Vol.

30%

Titaníque

$11 Vol.

27%

Schmigadoon!

$25 Vol.

46%

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent Tony nominations announcement on May 5 has sharpened trader focus on the Best Musical race, with Schmigadoon! holding the market lead thanks to its 12 total nods and strong critical reception as a Golden Age musical parody. The Lost Boys follows closely with an identical nomination haul for its vampire-themed adaptation, while smaller-scale entries Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) and Titaníque trail amid a notably light season for new Broadway musicals. Guild and critics' circle signals remain limited, but the frontrunners' broad category strength and timely openings continue to shape consensus ahead of the June ceremony.

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40
End Date
Jun 7, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent Tony nominations announcement on May 5 has sharpened trader focus on the Best Musical race, with Schmigadoon! holding the market lead thanks to its 12 total nods and strong critical reception as a Golden Age musical parody. The Lost Boys follows closely with an identical nomination haul for its vampire-themed adaptation, while smaller-scale entries Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) and Titaníque trail amid a notably light season for new Broadway musicals. Guild and critics' circle signals remain limited, but the frontrunners' broad category strength and timely openings continue to shape consensus ahead of the June ceremony.

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40
End Date
Jun 7, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Schmigadoon!" at 46%, followed by "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" is "Schmigadoon!" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.