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icon for New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?
Sports·MLB

New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?

icon for New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?
Sports·MLB

New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?

47% chance
Polymarket
NEW
47% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors no new MLB CBA by the Dec. 1, 2026, expiration deadline at 51.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting entrenched tensions over owners' push for a salary cap and luxury tax reforms amid the MLBPA's firm opposition. Recent reports indicate labor negotiations between MLB owners and the players' union are set to commence soon, potentially in May or June, but with only seven months remaining and historical precedent from the 2021-22 lockout that delayed the season, traders anticipate protracted talks. The MLBPA enters with robust funds exceeding $170 million, bolstering its leverage, while aggressive free-agent spending suggests teams anticipate grandfathered deals. Progress on ancillary issues like international draft could accelerate a deal, but irreconcilable cap demands heighten lockout risks, keeping the market tightly balanced.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,183
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors no new MLB CBA by the Dec. 1, 2026, expiration deadline at 51.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting entrenched tensions over owners' push for a salary cap and luxury tax reforms amid the MLBPA's firm opposition. Recent reports indicate labor negotiations between MLB owners and the players' union are set to commence soon, potentially in May or June, but with only seven months remaining and historical precedent from the 2021-22 lockout that delayed the season, traders anticipate protracted talks. The MLBPA enters with robust funds exceeding $170 million, bolstering its leverage, while aggressive free-agent spending suggests teams anticipate grandfathered deals. Progress on ancillary issues like international draft could accelerate a deal, but irreconcilable cap demands heighten lockout risks, keeping the market tightly balanced.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,183
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 47% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 47¢, the market collectively assigns a 47% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" is 47% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 47% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.