The mid-season dismissals of leading candidates Nico Estévez and Bradley Carnell, following Austin FC’s mid-table Western Conference position and Philadelphia Union’s league-worst record, have not yet shifted trader consensus away from their respective 39.4% and 38.6% implied probabilities, as markets continue to weigh prior achievements against 2026 form. Strong early-season results from clubs such as Nashville SC under B.J. Callaghan and Inter Miami under Gerardo “Tata” Martino keep those coaches in the 26–29% range, while additional contenders including Henrik Rydström, Dean Smith, and Eric Quill sit within a narrow band reflecting the league’s balanced standings and absence of a dominant frontrunner through mid-June. This clustering underscores how roster moves, home/away splits, and fixture congestion continue to compress probabilities across more than two dozen active MLS head coaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBradley Carnell 39.5%
Nico Estévez 39.1%
Gerardo “Tata” Martino 28.3%
Dean Smith 28.0%
$80,221 Vol.
$80,221 Vol.
Bradley Carnell
39%
Nico Estévez
39%
Gerardo “Tata” Martino
28%
Dean Smith
28%
Robin Fraser
27%
Eric Quill
27%
Henrik Rydström
27%
B.J. Callaghan
25%
Pascal Jansen
25%
Bruce Arena
23%
Greg Vanney
22%
Brian Schmetzer
21%
Raphael Wicky
20%
Matt Wells
20%
Yoann Damet
18%
Jesper Sørensen
18%
Gregg Berhalter
17%
Mikey Varas
17%
Pablo Mastroeni
16%
Michael Bradley
16%
Phil Neville
16%
Marco Donadel
15%
Marko Mitrović
13%
Javier Mascherano
10%
Cameron Knowles
1%
Óscar Pareja
16%
Pat Noonan
1%
René Weiler
1%
Ben Olsen
1%
Marc Dos Santos
27%
Bradley Carnell 39.5%
Nico Estévez 39.1%
Gerardo “Tata” Martino 28.3%
Dean Smith 28.0%
$80,221 Vol.
$80,221 Vol.
Bradley Carnell
39%
Nico Estévez
39%
Gerardo “Tata” Martino
28%
Dean Smith
28%
Robin Fraser
27%
Eric Quill
27%
Henrik Rydström
27%
B.J. Callaghan
25%
Pascal Jansen
25%
Bruce Arena
23%
Greg Vanney
22%
Brian Schmetzer
21%
Raphael Wicky
20%
Matt Wells
20%
Yoann Damet
18%
Jesper Sørensen
18%
Gregg Berhalter
17%
Mikey Varas
17%
Pablo Mastroeni
16%
Michael Bradley
16%
Phil Neville
16%
Marco Donadel
15%
Marko Mitrović
13%
Javier Mascherano
10%
Cameron Knowles
1%
Óscar Pareja
16%
Pat Noonan
1%
René Weiler
1%
Ben Olsen
1%
Marc Dos Santos
27%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The mid-season dismissals of leading candidates Nico Estévez and Bradley Carnell, following Austin FC’s mid-table Western Conference position and Philadelphia Union’s league-worst record, have not yet shifted trader consensus away from their respective 39.4% and 38.6% implied probabilities, as markets continue to weigh prior achievements against 2026 form. Strong early-season results from clubs such as Nashville SC under B.J. Callaghan and Inter Miami under Gerardo “Tata” Martino keep those coaches in the 26–29% range, while additional contenders including Henrik Rydström, Dean Smith, and Eric Quill sit within a narrow band reflecting the league’s balanced standings and absence of a dominant frontrunner through mid-June. This clustering underscores how roster moves, home/away splits, and fixture congestion continue to compress probabilities across more than two dozen active MLS head coaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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