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icon for Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?

icon for Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?

May 1

May 1

85–90 95.5%

90–95 2.8%

80–85 2.2%

<80 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

85–90 95.5%

90–95 2.8%

80–85 2.2%

<80 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

<80

$813 Vol.

1%

80–85

$1,428 Vol.

2%

85–90

$1,890 Vol.

96%

90–95

$1,077 Vol.

3%

95–100

$866 Vol.

<1%

100+

$639 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The CDC's FluSurv-NET data for Week 15, ending April 18, 2026, reports a cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate of 85.2 per 100,000 population—the third highest since the 2010-2011 season—driving trader consensus to a 94.3% implied probability for the 85–90 range in Week 16. This positioning reflects sharply declining seasonal flu activity, with the Week 15 weekly rate at 0.5 per 100,000 (estimated 0.7–0.9 after reporting lags), dominated by influenza A(H3N2) and minimal outpatient visits or test positivity nationwide. Low weekly additions should keep the Week 16 cumulative near 85.7–86.1, though surveillance delays introduce slight uncertainty; a Week 16 surge or major backlog revisions could push it to 90+, while downward adjustments are improbable. The confirmatory FluView Week 16 report is expected early May.

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$6,713
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The CDC's FluSurv-NET data for Week 15, ending April 18, 2026, reports a cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate of 85.2 per 100,000 population—the third highest since the 2010-2011 season—driving trader consensus to a 94.3% implied probability for the 85–90 range in Week 16. This positioning reflects sharply declining seasonal flu activity, with the Week 15 weekly rate at 0.5 per 100,000 (estimated 0.7–0.9 after reporting lags), dominated by influenza A(H3N2) and minimal outpatient visits or test positivity nationwide. Low weekly additions should keep the Week 16 cumulative near 85.7–86.1, though surveillance delays introduce slight uncertainty; a Week 16 surge or major backlog revisions could push it to 90+, while downward adjustments are improbable. The confirmatory FluView Week 16 report is expected early May.

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$6,713
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "85–90" at 96%, followed by "90–95" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?" is "85–90" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "90–95" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 16, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.