Trader consensus positions Netherlands as Group F favorites at 54.5% implied probability, buoyed by elite squad depth featuring Virgil van Dijk's defensive leadership, Cody Gakpo's clinical finishing, and dominant UEFA qualifying form, despite Xavi Simons' ACL injury last week ruling him out. Japan's 25.5% reflects their high-pressing style, counter-attacking efficiency from Asian qualifiers, and 2022 World Cup upsets over Germany and Spain, though Takumi Minamino's ACL absence tempers momentum. Sweden's 14.0% stems from physical set-piece prowess and gritty playoff qualification over Poland, with Viktor Gyökeres in form. Tunisia trails at 5.3% as resilient underdogs with a stingy defensive record from CAF qualifiers, but limited firepower caps upset potential ahead of June 14 opener versus Netherlands at AT&T Stadium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNetherlands 55%
Japan 26%
Sweden 14%
Tunisia 5.1%
$110,561 Vol.
$110,561 Vol.
Netherlands
55%
Japan
26%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
5%
Netherlands 55%
Japan 26%
Sweden 14%
Tunisia 5.1%
$110,561 Vol.
$110,561 Vol.
Netherlands
55%
Japan
26%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
5%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Netherlands as Group F favorites at 54.5% implied probability, buoyed by elite squad depth featuring Virgil van Dijk's defensive leadership, Cody Gakpo's clinical finishing, and dominant UEFA qualifying form, despite Xavi Simons' ACL injury last week ruling him out. Japan's 25.5% reflects their high-pressing style, counter-attacking efficiency from Asian qualifiers, and 2022 World Cup upsets over Germany and Spain, though Takumi Minamino's ACL absence tempers momentum. Sweden's 14.0% stems from physical set-piece prowess and gritty playoff qualification over Poland, with Viktor Gyökeres in form. Tunisia trails at 5.3% as resilient underdogs with a stingy defensive record from CAF qualifiers, but limited firepower caps upset potential ahead of June 14 opener versus Netherlands at AT&T Stadium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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