Trader consensus reflects a razor-tight Group D race, with Türkiye edging USA at 35.5% to 34.5% implied probabilities, driven by the USMNT's recent friendly struggles—5-2 loss to Belgium and 0-2 defeat to Portugal in late March—contrasting Türkiye's momentum from playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo to qualify. USA benefits from co-host status and likely home games at SoFi Stadium and elsewhere, plus familiarity after narrow 2-1 victories over Paraguay and Australia last year, though a 2-1 friendly loss to Türkiye underscores the threat. Paraguay (17%) and Australia (7.5%) trail amid lower FIFA rankings (around 40th and 27th), physical styles, and injury concerns for key players in both camps, heightening upset potential in this balanced group where top-two advancement (plus possible third) looms large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTürkiye 36%
USA 35%
Paraguay 17%
Australia 7.5%
$35,746 Vol.
$35,746 Vol.
Jun 27, 2026
Türkiye
36%
USA
35%
Paraguay
17%
Australia
8%
Türkiye 36%
USA 35%
Paraguay 17%
Australia 7.5%
$35,746 Vol.
$35,746 Vol.
Jun 27, 2026
Türkiye
$13,403 Vol.
36%
USA
$9,966 Vol.
35%
Paraguay
$7,769 Vol.
17%
Australia
$4,608 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a razor-tight Group D race, with Türkiye edging USA at 35.5% to 34.5% implied probabilities, driven by the USMNT's recent friendly struggles—5-2 loss to Belgium and 0-2 defeat to Portugal in late March—contrasting Türkiye's momentum from playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo to qualify. USA benefits from co-host status and likely home games at SoFi Stadium and elsewhere, plus familiarity after narrow 2-1 victories over Paraguay and Australia last year, though a 2-1 friendly loss to Türkiye underscores the threat. Paraguay (17%) and Australia (7.5%) trail amid lower FIFA rankings (around 40th and 27th), physical styles, and injury concerns for key players in both camps, heightening upset potential in this balanced group where top-two advancement (plus possible third) looms large.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Volume
$35,746End Date
Jun 27, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a razor-tight Group D race, with Türkiye edging USA at 35.5% to 34.5% implied probabilities, driven by the USMNT's recent friendly struggles—5-2 loss to Belgium and 0-2 defeat to Portugal in late March—contrasting Türkiye's momentum from playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo to qualify. USA benefits from co-host status and likely home games at SoFi Stadium and elsewhere, plus familiarity after narrow 2-1 victories over Paraguay and Australia last year, though a 2-1 friendly loss to Türkiye underscores the threat. Paraguay (17%) and Australia (7.5%) trail amid lower FIFA rankings (around 40th and 27th), physical styles, and injury concerns for key players in both camps, heightening upset potential in this balanced group where top-two advancement (plus possible third) looms large.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,746End Date
Jun 27, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus reflects a razor-tight Group D race, with Türkiye edging USA at 35.5% to 34.5% implied probabilities, driven by the USMNT's recent friendly struggles—5-2 loss to Belgium and 0-2 defeat to Portugal in late March—contrasting Türkiye's momentum from playoff wins over Romania and Kosovo to qualify. USA benefits from co-host status and likely home games at SoFi Stadium and elsewhere, plus familiarity after narrow 2-1 victories over Paraguay and Australia last year, though a 2-1 friendly loss to Türkiye underscores the threat. Paraguay (17%) and Australia (7.5%) trail amid lower FIFA rankings (around 40th and 27th), physical styles, and injury concerns for key players in both camps, heightening upset potential in this balanced group where top-two advancement (plus possible third) looms large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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